Bitcoin News Today: Bitcoin's $100K Battleground: Can Sellers Be Stopped?

Bitcoin faces mounting sell-side pressure as long-term holders offloaded a record 815,000 BTC over the past 30 days - the largest exodus since January 2024 - according to recent analyses from CryptoQuant and Bitcoinworld.co.in. This selling surge, coupled with weakening demand and deteriorating market sentiment, has pushed Bitcoin into one of its most bearish phases of the year, raising concerns about the cryptocurrency's ability to stabilize amid intensifying volatility.

The sell-off gained momentum following the October 10 "Big Liquidation" event, which triggered a sharp decline in upward price action and pushed key indicators into bearish territory. Bitcoin's price has since slipped below the critical $100,000 threshold for the first time since June, with the 365-day moving average - historically a key support level - now acting as a battleground. The asset has breached this moving average multiple times, a sign not seen earlier in the current bull cycle and a potential precursor to deeper corrections.

Long-term holders, typically seen as a stabilizing force, have amplified the downward pressure. Their heavy distribution occurred as spot demand waned and stablecoin liquidity growth slowed, creating a fragile environment where Bitcoin struggles to sustain meaningful support. In prior cycles, strong demand from ETFs, institutional traders, and retail buyers absorbed such selling, but that buffer is absent now. The combination of steady supply from long-term holders and weakening demand has created a precarious balance, increasing the risk of further price deterioration.

Market sentiment reflects this instability. The CryptoQuant bullishness index, which gauges investor confidence, plummeted from an optimistic 80 in October - when Bitcoin hit a record $126,000 - to a bearish 20 as prices fell below $100,000. Meanwhile, profit-taking remains elevated, with $3 billion in net profits locked in on November 7. However, realized losses remain minimal, suggesting holders are not panic-selling despite deteriorating support levels. Analysts note that bottoms historically form only after losses rise and weaker hands exit, a pattern yet to materialize.

Geopolitical tensions further complicate the outlook. A recent dispute between China and the U.S. over alleged state-level Bitcoin theft - alleging 127,000 BTC ($13 billion) was seized - has added volatility to an already fragile market. While Bitcoin's price has held above $105,000, the incident underscores how geopolitical factors can influence supply dynamics and investor sentiment. Some analysts argue that constrained supply, if prolonged, could act as a bullish catalyst for 2026, though short-term volatility remains a risk.

Bitcoin now stands at a pivotal juncture. The coming weeks will test whether the asset can reclaim its 365-day moving average and stabilize demand. Failure to do so could accelerate a broader correction, while a rebound might signal a temporary pullback in a longer-term bull cycle. For now, the market's fate hinges on the interplay between long-term holder behavior, geopolitical developments, and the resilience of spot demand.