Bitcoin News Today: Bears Warn of Bitcoin's 50% Collapse as Bulls Eye $250K Rally

Bitcoin's recent price trajectory has drawn comparisons to the 1970s soybean market crash, with veteran trader Peter Brandt warning that the cryptocurrency's chart is forming a "broadening top" pattern historically associated with market tops. Brandt, citing similarities to the soybean price collapse of 1977, cautioned that Bitcoin could face a 50% decline if history repeats itself. The soybean market then plummeted after global supply outpaced demand, a dynamic Brandt sees echoing in crypto today.

The warning comes as Bitcoin's 30-day price has fallen 5.32%, with Strategy Inc. (MSTR), a major corporate Bitcoin holder, seeing its stock drop 10.13% amid declining net asset values. MSTR's exposure to Bitcoin-holding 640,250 BTC worth $71.73 billion-has made it a bellwether for crypto's institutional adoption. However, bears argue that the company's "harebrained" strategy could leave it "underwater" if Bitcoin's price continues to falter.

Meanwhile, the traditional four-year Bitcoin price cycle, once driven by halving events, appears to be breaking. Matthew Hougan of Bitwise Asset Management noted that the 2024 halving did not trigger the expected post-event rally, as spot Bitcoin ETFs and institutional inflows disrupted historical patterns. This shift has led to a more liquidity-driven market, with analysts like Ryan Chow of Solv Protocol suggesting 30%-50% corrections are now more likely than the 70%-80% crashes of past cycles.

The market's uncertainty is reflected in the , which hit an "Extreme Fear" score of 25 in late October. While some analysts remain bullish, citing Bitcoin's potential to reach $250,000 or even $185,000, others warn of a prolonged bear market. Peter Schiff, for instance, predicted a "brutal" downturn for Bitcoin treasury companies, questioning whether any-including MSTR-will survive.

Gold's recent outperformance has further complicated the narrative. With gold up 33% in 2025, the BTC/XAU ratio (measuring how many ounces of gold buy one Bitcoin) has fallen to 31.2 from 40 in December 2024. Analysts like Joe Consorti argue that Bitcoin typically lags gold by 100 days, suggesting a potential Q4 2025 rally if gold's momentum holds. However, others, including Schiff, argue Bitcoin still lags behind gold as a store of value.

[1] Bitcoin Is Mirroring Soybean Chart Before 1970s Crash: Peter Brandt (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-soybean-market-skeptical-crypto-analysts-peter-brandt)

[2] Bitcoin (BTC) price cycle might be breaking - CNBC (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/08/bitcoin-btc-price-cycle-might-be-breaking.html?msockid=318ec3ab977761c6164bd526967c6038)

[4] Strategy (MSTR) News: Bears End Bull Market, Outperform BTC ... (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/10/15/strategy-bears-outperform-bitcoin-bears-breach-pivotal-bull-market-support)

[5] Peter Schiff Predicts 'Brutal' Bear Market For Bitcoin Treasury ... (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/peter-schiff-predicts-brutal-bear-103108802.html)

[8] Gold Outshines in 2025 as Bitcoin-Gold Ratio Eyes Q4 Breakout (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/04/gold-outshines-in-2025-as-bitcoin-gold-ratio-eyes-q4-breakout)

[11] Record Gold Rally Fuels Bitcoin Forecasts of $185K in Q4 2025 (https://beincrypto.com/gold-price-hits-new-highs-boosting-btc-expectations/)