Bitcoin News Today: Bears Hold $13.8B Edge as Bitcoin’s Fate Hinges on August 29 Expiry

The upcoming Bitcoin options expiry on August 29 could serve as a pivotal moment for the cryptocurrency’s near-term trajectory, with $13.8 billion in notional value at stake. The event is expected to test whether the recent 9.7% correction in Bitcoin’s price signals a temporary pause in the bull market or a definitive end. As of Thursday, Bitcoin had fallen to $112,100, its lowest level in six weeks, amplifying bearish sentiment ahead of the expiry. The pressure on bulls is further compounded by the imbalance in open interest for options contracts. Specifically, put (sell) options hold a stronger position than call (buy) options when considering strike price distribution, despite the total open interest in call options ($7.44 billion) being 17% higher than that of puts ($6.37 billion). Deribit, the dominant platform in the options market with an 85% share, shows that only 12% of call options are positioned at $115,000 or below, leaving most of these contracts out-of-the-money. Conversely, 21% of put options are concentrated at $115,000 or higher, with a notable cluster at the $112,000 level. This distribution suggests that bears are well-positioned to push prices lower in the coming days. Analysis of five possible price ranges on Deribit highlights the bearish advantage: between $105,000 and $110,000, put options outperform calls by $2.45 billion; between $110,100 and $114,000, the lead is $1.5 billion in favor of puts; and between $114,100 and $116,000, puts maintain a $360 million advantage. Only above $116,000 do bulls begin to see support, with call options outperforming puts in the $116,000 to $120,000 range. For bullish strategies to succeed, Bitcoin must close above $116,000 at 8:00 am UTC on August 29. However, the critical battleground remains around $114,000, where bears are most incentivized to drive prices downward. Broader macroeconomic dynamics, including investor sentiment toward the artificial intelligence sector, will also play a role. Morgan Stanley’s warning that rising AI-sector spending could strain tech companies’ ability to fund buybacks has contributed to heightened caution in equity and crypto markets. Meanwhile, traders are closely watching the upcoming remarks by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. If the Fed signals increased odds of rate cuts, it could provide a much-needed boost to risk assets. However, recent data, including hotter-than-expected jobless claims and rising producer prices, have tempered expectations, leaving the market in a state of uncertainty. The outcome of the August 29 options expiry will likely depend on how these macroeconomic signals interact with Bitcoin’s price action in the final days before expiration. If Bitcoin fails to reclaim $114,000, it would likely signal a stronger bearish narrative and could trigger further downward pressure. On the other hand, a rebound fueled by favorable Fed commentary or renewed risk-on sentiment could shift the momentum back to bulls. As of now, the market remains in a delicate balancing act, with both technical and macroeconomic factors poised to influence the outcome. The expiration of these options will not only reflect the current state of Bitcoin’s price dynamics but may also set the tone for its performance in the coming months. Source: [1] Bitcoin Bull Market Hinges On $13.8 Billion Options Expiry (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-s-13-8b-options-expiry-puts-bulls-on-edge-ahead-of-key-test) [2] Bitcoin Options Expiry Could Trigger Market Shift This Week (https://www.cointribune.com/en/bitcoin-options-expiry-could-trigger-market-shift-this-week/) [3] Will Markets Fall Further When $4.8B Crypto Options (https://cryptopotato.com/will-markets-fall-further-when-4-8b-crypto-options-expire-today/) [4] Bitcoin dips ahead of Fed chair's remarks at Jackson Hole (https://fortune.com/crypto/2025/08/21/bitcoin-ethereum-fed-jerome-powell-jackson-hole-wyoming/) [5] Bitcoin price rises ahead of Fed Jackson Hole speech (https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-price-crypto-federal-reserve-jackson-hole-085201361.html) [6] Bitcoin Bull Market Hinges On $13.8 Billion Options Expiry (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-s-13-8b-options-expiry-puts-bulls-on-edge-ahead-of-key-test)