Bitcoin News Today: Bearish Swells Target Bitcoin's $110K Lifeline as Fear Index Climbs

Bitcoin tests key $110,000 support as bullish optimism wanes amid mixed derivatives data and bearish sentiment indicators. The cryptocurrency traded near $109,479 as of the latest update, struggling to maintain stability above the critical psychological threshold, according to a Tremplin report. Open interest in Bitcoin futures contracts totaled $77.45 billion across major exchanges, with CME and Binance accounting for $15.19 billion and $13.50 billion respectively, the report added. Bybit held $9.23 billion in open interest, while OKX and Gate.io reported $4.13 billion and $8.56 billion.

Options market activity revealed a shift in trader positioning, with puts gaining traction despite calls representing 60.66% of open interest. Over the past 24 hours, puts accounted for 50.87% of volume at Deribit, signaling increased hedging activity, the Tremplin piece said. Short-term flows highlighted significant put buying at key levels, including the $110,000 strike for September 28 (1,311.9 BTC) and the $100,000 strike for October 10 (853.3 BTC).

Technical indicators showed diverging signals, with 15 bearish and 18 bearish-leaning signals outweighing bullish momentum, the Tremplin article noted. The fear and greed index registered 37, reflecting a "fear" market mood, and Bitcoin's current price near $109,479 represented an 11.92% decline from its highest cycle and a 1.93% increase from its lowest cycle, the report added.

Derivatives markets underscored caution, with perpetual futures funding rates at 11%—a rise from 4% on Sunday but still below the 6–12% range indicating strong bullish enthusiasm—according to an FXLeaders report. Institutional outflows from Bitcoin ETFs totaled $383 million between Thursday and Friday, compounding bearish pressures, the FXLeaders piece added.

The $110,000 level emerged as a pivotal battleground, with max pain analysis concentrating critical price action between $110,000 and $116,000, the Tremplin analysis showed. A break below $107,000 could trigger algorithmic selling, while a rebound above $115,000 might reignite bullish momentum, according to a BTCC analysis. Analysts also pointed to the 200-day moving average at $104,000 as a final line of defense for long-term bullish trends, the BTCC piece noted.

Macro factors further complicated the outlook, with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) hitting a three-week high, supported by strong employment data and a hawkish Federal Reserve stance, the BTCC analysis added. The dollar's strength historically correlates with crypto weakness, exacerbating Bitcoin's challenges. Upcoming options expiries, including $3.5 billion in Bitcoin options with max pain at $110,000, added volatility risks.

Market participants faced three potential scenarios: a bullish rebound to $115K–$120K if $110K holds, a rangebound consolidation between $110K–$115K, or a breakdown below $107K leading to a potential correction. Polymarket users priced an 8% chance of Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by year-end versus an equivalent probability of dipping below $70,000 by 2025, the FXLeaders report noted.