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Bitcoin's price action remains under pressure as a major whale has increased its short position to 3,500
, with a liquidation threshold near $120,000. This move, coupled with geopolitical tensions and technical indicators, has drawn attention to key support levels and market sentiment.According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView,
(BTC) retreated from intraday highs of $116,000, closing the upside gap in CME Group's futures market and falling below the daily open. The whale's short position, established before news of U.S.-China trade developments, has intensified bearish momentum. Analysts speculate that the whale's actions may be strategic or driven by external factors, with some suggesting potential manipulation. For instance, Max Keiser claimed that "banks are lending (ie printing) billions to fund naked Bitcoin-shorts," while Ted Pillows humorously noted the whale's position could aim to avoid accusations of insider trading [1].
Short-term holders (STHs), whose aggregated cost basis sits at $113,861 as of Sunday, are critical to monitoring near-term stability. Onchain analytics platforms like Glassnode highlight that STHs often act as a safety net during bull market corrections. However, Bitcoin's current price of around $114,000 has pressed against this cost basis, raising concerns about potential capitulation [1].
Technical analysis from CryptoQuant underscores the importance of moving averages (SMAs) in gauging support. The 30-day, 90-day, and 200-day SMAs are converging into a dynamic resistance zone. While Bitcoin remains above the 200-day SMA (a long-term bullish indicator), its position below the 30- and 90-day SMAs suggests weakening short- to medium-term momentum [1].
Geopolitical factors further complicate the outlook. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's announcement of "working level" talks with China to address trade tensions failed to buoy markets. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's price has been volatile amid U.S. President Donald Trump's threats of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, which triggered a $19 billion liquidation event in leveraged crypto positions on Friday . Although weekend diplomacy eased some tensions, the market remains sensitive to renewed escalations .
Market participants are also watching the 50-day and 200-day SMAs for directional clues. Barchart's data shows the 50-day SMA at $114,556 and the 200-day SMA at $105,456, with Bitcoin currently trading near the former. A break below the 200-day SMA could signal deeper bearish sentiment, while a rebound above the 50-day SMA might indicate short-term stabilization [4].
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains neutral at 47.47, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions. However, the 30- and 90-day volatility readings and key support levels like $111,353 (S1) and $105,578 (S3) are critical for near-term direction .
In summary, Bitcoin's trajectory hinges on the whale's short position, STH resilience, and technical support levels. While the long-term trend remains intact above the 200-day SMA, short-term volatility and geopolitical risks pose immediate challenges.
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