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Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of Bitmex, has highlighted the Bank of Japan’s recent policy shift as a potential catalyst for Bitcoin’s (BTC USD) price movement. On July 17, the Bank of Japan announced that it would begin supplying U.S. dollar funds against pooled collateral, a move aimed at easing stress in global dollar markets. This strategy aligns with Hayes’ earlier predictions, outlined in his essay "Shikata Ga Nai," which suggested that as dollar liquidity tightens, central banks would be compelled to respond by injecting more fiat currency into the system. This, in turn, could support the prices of riskier assets, including Bitcoin.
Hayes plans to delve deeper into this topic during his presentation at WebX Tokyo on August 25. He will discuss how actions from major central banks, such as the BOJ’s recent move, could influence the next phase of Bitcoin’s price trajectory. This presentation is expected to attract significant attention from both the cryptocurrency and traditional finance communities.
In the days leading up to the BOJ’s announcement, the BTC/USD pair experienced a notable increase in activity. On July 15, exchange inflows surged to 81,000 BTC, a significant jump from the previous week’s 19,000 BTC. This surge was primarily driven by large holders and miners, who also increased their selling activity. Outflows from miners’ wallets reached 16,000 BTC on July 15, the highest daily total since early April. Nearly all of this Bitcoin was sent to exchanges, indicating that miners were selling into the rally. Despite this, the market remained stable.
Hayes has consistently maintained a bullish outlook for Bitcoin. He has predicted that the current market cycle could drive Bitcoin’s price close to $200,000 before a potential shift into altcoins. He also projected an end-of-year target of $250,000 for the BTC/USD pair. Additionally, Hayes has a long-term view that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by the end of 2028, citing ongoing pressure in U.S. treasury markets and expected changes in global capital flows. These forecasts are based on macro trends that Hayes believes are currently forming in the market. He sees central bank liquidity responses, such as the BOJ’s, as key factors that could drive digital asset prices in the years ahead.
The BOJ’s move marks a notable shift in global financial conditions. While it remains to be seen whether this will lead to sustained market moves, it adds to a growing list of signs that global financial conditions may be entering a new phase. Hayes’ comprehensive analysis in Tokyo next month is expected to draw attention from both the cryptocurrency and traditional finance circles, providing further insights into how central bank policies could influence the future of digital assets.

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