Bitcoin News Today: Arthur Hayes warns Bitcoin may fall to $100,000 as U.S. tariffs and weak jobs data drive macroeconomic concerns

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and a leading voice in the crypto space, has issued a bearish outlook for Bitcoin and Ethereum, citing macroeconomic concerns linked to the U.S. tariff bill and weak employment data. In a post on X, Hayes argued that the pending third-quarter tariff measures—paired with the recent Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report showing only 73,000 new jobs in July 2025—signal a slowdown in credit expansion and economic stagnation. He forecasts Bitcoin testing $100,000 and Ethereum falling to $3,000, as global economies struggle to drive nominal GDP growth [1].

Hayes’ analysis draws from historical data suggesting that tariff-related trade retaliation could reduce GDP by 0.2% in major economies, according to the Tax Foundation. These macroeconomic trends, he argues, will continue to pressure asset prices, particularly in the crypto market, where liquidity remains fragile amid rising inflation and tightening monetary policy [2]. His recent trades—selling 2,373 ETH ($8.32M), 7.76M ENA ($4.62M), and 38.86B PEPE ($414.7K)—further underline a strategic shift in positioning ahead of expected market turbulence, as tracked by Lookonchain [3].

The market has responded with mixed reactions. Some critics argue that Hayes has reversed his earlier bullish stance, notably his “to infinity” article that emphasized crypto’s long-term potential. Others, however, acknowledge his experience in derivatives trading and view his current warnings as a measured response to macroeconomic headwinds. Hayes plans to expand on these themes during his keynote at the WebX Asia event in Tokyo on August 25, 2025, where he will explore how trade policy might influence crypto markets in the near term [1].

Bitcoin has already shown signs of weakness, trading below its all-time high as investors remain cautious ahead of the tariff bill’s enforcement and the upcoming “Crypto Week” in New York. Ethereum, too, has seen bearish signals, with traders noting Hayes’ significant offloading of tokens amid the broader market pullback. These moves are seen as indicators of a growing sense of risk aversion in the crypto space [2].

While long-term price projections—such as a 2040 Bitcoin price of $354,750.52 based on a 5% annual growth rate—remain speculative, the immediate outlook is clouded by macroeconomic volatility. Hayes’ warnings align with a broader narrative that macroeconomic conditions are a dominant force in shaping both traditional and digital asset markets. As the U.S. moves toward implementing new tariffs, the resulting inflationary pressures could further erode risk appetite, leading to capital flight from speculative assets [4].

The situation highlights the ongoing tension between short-term market corrections and long-term optimism in the crypto sector. For now, investors are closely monitoring the unfolding trade developments, with Hayes’ insights adding a notable voice to the debate over how the global economy and trade policies will shape the future of digital assets.

Sources:

[1] Arthur Hayes warns of rising macroeconomic pressure as the U.S. tariff bill comes due in Q3 and job data signals weakness. (https://coinpedia.org/crypto-live-news/)

[2] Bitcoin trades 2% below ATH as analysts eye new records amid looming US tariff deadline and upcoming “Crypto Week” volatility. (https://cointelegraph.com/tags/btc-markets)

[3] Arthur Hayes offloads $13 million in ETH, PEPE, and ENA amid market pullback. (https://www.fxempire.com/crypto/ethereum/news)

[4] In 2040, based on a predicted annual growth rate of 5%, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to reach $354,750.52. (https://www.bitget.com/price/bitcoin/price-prediction)