Bitcoin News Today: Altcoins Nearing 2021-Style Breakout as Technicals Align for "Wyckoff-Style" Spring

Altcoins are currently experiencing significant price pressures but are showing structural similarities to the conditions observed before the 2021 altcoin season, according to crypto analyst Kevin (Kev Capital TA). In a video released on September 2, Kevin highlighted the convergence of weekly and monthly indicators—both linear and logarithmic—on the Total3/BTC ratio, which represents the combined market capitalization of altcoins excluding Ethereum and stablecoins versus Bitcoin. This convergence mirrors the "Wyckoff-style bottoming process" that preceded the 2021 altcoin rally and suggests the potential for a similar breakout.

Kevin emphasized that the current pattern is analogous to the 2018–2020 base that ultimately led to a significant surge in 2021. He pointed out that the weekly linear chart of Total3/BTC has retraced into an accumulation range, pierced support in a "capitulation-style flush," and then reclaimed the range, a move he describes as the "spring phase" preceding a potential altcoin surge. This development, combined with momentum and breadth indicators, aligns with what was seen prior to the 2021 surge. Kevin noted that "whale money flow" has bottomed out at the same level as in 2021, the MACD has crossed to the upside at the same level, and the stochastic RSI has surged to 96. He argued that a push toward the "100 level" could coincide with the period of maximum upside impulse.

On the monthly log chart of Total3/BTC, Kevin identified an eight-year support band around the "0.27 to 0.24 area," where a long-term downtrendline of resistance is now meeting a "higher low structure." He described the momentum backdrop as classically divergent, with the monthly RSI "peeking out" of a multi-year downtrend channel for the first time since the 2021 top. The monthly stochastic RSI has carved a "full-blown V-shaped turn" up from near zero, though it has not yet reached the 80 level. Kevin stressed that the most bullish price action is expected once this threshold is broken.

Kevin also highlighted a double-bottom pattern in the monthly L-MACD, identical to the one formed between June and December 2020. He argued that this pattern, combined with the July and June "two-step low," mirrors the prior regime shift that led to the 2021 altcoin surge. While the technical indicators are aligned, Kevin cautioned that the current setup is conditional on favorable macroeconomic conditions. He outlined the need for "lower inflation or flat inflation, a softening labor market, and softening growth," which would allow the Federal Reserve to shift its policy focus toward employment, reduce the two-year yield, and potentially curtail quantitative tightening. With key macroeconomic data expected over the next three weeks and the FOMC meeting set for September 17, Kevin sees Q4 as the critical window for confirmation.

Kevin also linked his Total3/BTC analysis to his earlier Ethereum calls, noting that Ethereum has hit a new all-time high and is forming a similar base as in 2020. He described the current altcoin rotation as a "sequel" to the Ethereum surge of 2021, with Total3 showing "two months of outperformance" from a major support band—a pattern he previously observed in Ethereum before its advance. Kevin acknowledged that while the technicals are aligned, the timing and seasonality remain uncertain. He characterized September as "usually weak" and suggested that a more forceful rotation might depend on macroeconomic confirmation in Q4.

Despite the challenges, Kevin argued that the current conditions represent a unique opportunity. He noted that the alignment of weekly and monthly indicators is "unprecedented" and could lead to a scenario where the altcoin market cap "steals dominance away from Bitcoin at a higher and faster pace than we’ve seen since the previous altcoin season." At press time, the Total3 market cap stood at $1.04 trillion, highlighting the scale of the potential shift.

Source:

[1] Altcoin Market Cap Shows 4 Years of Compression (https://cryptodnes.bg/en/altcoin-market-cap-shows-4-years-of-compression-whats-next/)

[2] Altcoins poised to extend rallies: M, IP, PUMP, SKY, POL (https://crypto.news/altcoins-rally-m-ip-pump-sky-pol-bitcoin-dominance/)