Bitcoin News Today: Alphractal Forecasts Bitcoin Floor at $108,000 by 2033 via Long-Term Power Law Model

A cryptocurrency analysis firm has issued a long-term price floor projection for Bitcoin, forecasting that the asset is unlikely to fall below $108,000 by 2033. Alphractal, a research firm co-founded by João Wedson, based this forecast on the Long-Term Power Law chart, a specialized analytical model that employs logarithmic scaling on both axes to assess macroeconomic trends. The model’s historical accuracy in tracking Bitcoin’s price movements underpins the firm’s conclusion, which it presented as a probabilistic outlook rather than a definitive guarantee [1].

According to the analysis, Bitcoin faces a critical resistance level at $122,000. A sustained break above this threshold, the firm argues, would signal the onset of a bull market and validate the asset’s alignment with the model’s predictive trend lines. Conversely, failure to breach this level could prolong a consolidation phase, reflecting structural uncertainty in market sentiment. Wedson emphasized that the Long-Term Power Law chart has “historically guided Bitcoin’s price trajectory with great accuracy,” though the current resistance remains unbroken [1].

The model’s methodology diverges from traditional financial tools by using linear regression to generate predictive trend lines. Unlike conventional charts, the Long-Term Power Law’s log-log structure enables analysts to identify macroeconomic patterns that linear models might miss, offering a distinct framework for long-term forecasting. Alphractal noted that a decline below $108,000 by 2033 would contradict the model’s observed historical cycles, reinforcing its confidence in Bitcoin’s resilience amid periodic bear markets [1].

The firm’s projection contrasts with shorter-term volatility, such as recent price surges, which it did not directly address. However, it underscored the importance of the $122,000 level as a psychological and structural benchmark for investors. While the firm’s analysis aligns with broader technical assessments of key resistance levels, it avoids attributing Bitcoin’s trajectory to macroeconomic or regulatory factors, instead framing its movements as governed by intrinsic mathematical patterns [1].

Alphractal explicitly stated that its findings are not investment advice, a caveat included in the original report. The firm’s probabilistic approach acknowledges that unforeseen variables, such as regulatory shifts or macroeconomic shocks, could alter the model’s predictions. Despite these caveats, the projection highlights growing confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term stability, joining a broader narrative of bullish sentiment within the cryptocurrency space [1].

Sources:

[1] [Bitcoin Price Not Expected to Fall Below This Price Until 2033] (https://en.bitcoinsistemi.com/analysis-company-announced-bitcoin-price-not-expected-to-fall-below-this-price-until-2033/)