Bitcoin News Today: AI Bearish on Bitcoin's $100k, Analysts Eye Post-Fed Turnaround

Bitcoin Faces Less Than 50% Chance Of Hitting $100,000 By December 31, Says AI Model

The prospect of Bitcoin (BTC) reaching $100,000 by December 31 has dimmed, with an AI-driven model suggesting less than a 50% probability for the year-end target. This assessment comes amid a turbulent market environment marked by whale-driven sell-offs, shifting Federal Reserve (Fed) policy expectations, and growing interest in alternative crypto projects like DeepSnitch AI, which has surged 58% in recent weeks.

Market dynamics have turned bearish as Bitcoin's price dipped below critical support levels, including $85,000, sparking fears of a deeper correction toward $70,000–$75,000. A massive liquidation event-$1.93 billion in positions wiped out within 24 hours-further exacerbated volatility. Analysts at Coinpedia.org note that Bitcoin could consolidate in this range through mid-2026, with potential for a rebound contingent on improved liquidity and Fed policy shifts.

Arthur Hayes, former BitMEX CEO and prominent crypto commentator, has emerged as a key voice amid the uncertainty. Hayes argues that Bitcoin has likely bottomed out at $80,000, citing improving liquidity conditions as the Fed prepares to end quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1. He anticipates one final price dip into the low $80,000 range but insists the level will hold as a support, bolstered by rising U.S. bank lending and a potential shift toward monetary easing according to a report. "The quantity of credit matters more than the price of credit," Hayes emphasized, citing Bitcoin's historic rally from $16,000 to $100,000 despite high interest rates.

However, optimism is tempered by institutional and retail divergences. While ETF data shows $2.8 billion in outflows driven by smaller holders, institutions remain bullish, accumulating positions in Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH). Meanwhile, retail panic has pushed traders toward high-risk, high-reward alternatives like DeepSnitch AI, whose presale has raised over $559,000. The project's AI-powered market intelligence tools -tracking whale activity and liquidity-have attracted traders seeking to front-run market moves.

The Fed's policy trajectory remains a wild card. CME Group's FedWatch tool pegs a 79% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the December meeting, up sharply from 42% a week earlier. Yet, economist Mohamed El-Erian has criticized the Fed's "stunning" volatility, attributing it to disrupted data from the government shutdown and a lack of strategic clarity. This uncertainty complicates Bitcoin's path, as liquidity improvements-critical for a sustained rally-remain conditional on broader macroeconomic stability.

For now, Bitcoin trades at $86,507, down 8.35% in seven days. While Hayes and others see a potential ascent to $200,000–$250,000 if liquidity expands, the AI model's bearish outlook underscores the challenges ahead. With geopolitical tensions, AI-driven market tools, and Fed policy all in flux, investors face a high-stakes balancing act as 2025 draws to a close.