Bitcoin News Today: "401(k) Crypto Access Could Fuel $200K Bitcoin Surge"

US retirement plans may significantly boost Bitcoin’s price to $200,000 by the end of 2025, according to André Dragosch, head of European research at Bitwise. The inclusion of cryptocurrency in 401(k) plans, enabled by an executive order signed by President Donald Trump on August 7, 2025, could unlock a new wave of capital into the market. The order permits 401(k) accounts to include digital assets, expanding access to retirement savings for crypto investments [1].

The Investment Company Institute reported that 401(k) plans hold approximately $8.9 trillion in assets as of September 30, 2024. If even a small portion of this capital were allocated to Bitcoin, it could fuel a substantial price increase. Dragosch noted that 1% allocation across the $12.2 trillion retirement plan market would bring an additional $122 billion into Bitcoin, further reinforcing the potential for a price surge [1]. According to his analysis, the inclusion of crypto in 401(k) plans may prove even more impactful than the approval of US spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 [3].

Several strategies are emerging to facilitate retirement investors’ exposure to Bitcoin. For example, the Calamos Bitcoin 80 Series Structured Alt Protection ETF – July (CBTY) offers a risk-managed approach, capping potential losses at 20% while providing an upside return of up to 35% [1]. This ETF is part of a growing trend of structured products that seek to balance the volatility of crypto with the long-term investment horizon of retirement portfolios. These products are designed to help investors navigate the inherent risks of Bitcoin while still capitalizing on its potential for significant returns [1].

Notably, some retirement investors may already have indirect exposure to Bitcoin through traditional mutual funds that hold publicly traded companies with crypto assets. Strategy (MSTR), for instance, holds over 600,000 bitcoins valued at approximately $70 billion. Multiple funds, including several from Morgan Stanley and American Funds, have significant allocations to MSTR and similar firms [2]. Additionally, other publicly traded companies like Mara Holdings and Riot Platforms have acquired substantial quantities of Bitcoin, further integrating the cryptocurrency into traditional investment vehicles [2]. Some funds also hold shares in crypto ETFs, such as Grayscale Bitcoin Trust and iShares Bitcoin Trust, providing indirect exposure to Bitcoin [2].

The anticipated inflow of capital from retirement plans could align with favorable macroeconomic conditions, such as expected Federal Reserve rate cuts. Markets are currently pricing in an 83% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on September 17. Dragosch suggested that such monetary policy could drive Bitcoin higher, particularly if retirement plan managers begin allocating funds to crypto as early as the fall [3]. This potential dual driver—401(k) allocations and Fed easing—could accelerate Bitcoin’s adoption in mainstream financial portfolios [3].

Despite the optimism, crypto exposure in 401(k) plans presents risks, including market volatility, regulatory uncertainty, and liquidity constraints. While BlackRock and Fidelity have a strong economic incentive to include Bitcoin ETFs in their retirement offerings, Vanguard has yet to do so. Additionally, the SEC has emphasized the need for appropriate safeguards around alternative investments in retirement plans [3]. As more investors gain access to crypto through 401(k) plans, asset managers and regulators will likely face increased scrutiny on how these investments are structured and managed [3].

Source:

[1] New 401(k) Order Opens Opportunity for Protected Bitcoin (https://www.etftrends.com/crypto-channel/new-401k-order-opens-opportunity-bitcoin-etfs/)

[2] Is Cryptocurrency Already Hiding in Your Retirement Account (https://www.morningstar.com/funds/is-cryptocurrency-already-hiding-your-retirement-account)

[3] 401(k) Crypto Retirement plans 'bigger' than Bitcoin ETF (https://cointelegraph.com/news/401-k-crypto-retirement-plans-bitcoin-etf-analyst)