Bitcoin News Today: $15B Bitcoin/Ethereum Options Expiry Sends BTC/ETH Below $116K/$3.6K, Max Pain Risks Rise

Over $15 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options expired on July 22 and July 25, marking one of the largest derivatives settlements in cryptocurrency markets this year. The event, driven by record open interest levels, has intensified volatility in BTC and ETH prices, with Bitcoin dipping below $116,000 and Ethereum dropping beneath $3,600 amid concentrated position adjustments. Deribit, the primary settlement platform, noted that the $15 billion notional value is among the highest in Q3, comparable to the $17 billion June H1 expiry [1].

The expiration cycle has triggered "max pain" scenarios for both assets, with Bitcoin facing critical resistance at $112,000 and Ethereum near $2,500–$2,800 levels. These thresholds reflect historical price corrections following large-scale options settlements, as traders hedge or liquidate positions to minimize losses. Derivatives activity has also amplified spot market movements, with heightened volatility skewing funding rates and volatility indices. For instance, Ethereum’s volatility index remains elevated, while Bitcoin’s negative funding rates signal growing bearish positioning [3].

Key players in this cycle include Deribit, alongside market makers like QCP Capital and GSR, which play a pivotal role in maintaining liquidity during high-impact events. The put/call ratio imbalance—0.92 for Bitcoin and 0.87 for Ethereum—suggests a cautious bullish bias among traders, though analysts warn that large notional settlements could accelerate downside risks [4]. Block Scholes analysts noted that Bitcoin’s recent consolidation below its all-time high of $118,500 has compressed volatility expectations, but expirations may reignite directional bets as traders recalibrate portfolios [7].

Historical patterns underscore the interplay between options expirations and price dynamics. For example, the $12.3 billion BTC options expiring on July 25 could trigger further corrections toward identified max pain zones. Derivatives platforms highlight that forced position adjustments often lead to sudden directional moves in spot markets, particularly in thinly traded environments [5]. Additionally, Ethereum’s inverted term structure and Bitcoin’s put-call skew, which shifted toward out-of-the-money calls by up to 7%, reflect divergent risk profiles between the two assets [8].

Regulatory and macroeconomic factors remain neutral catalysts for sustained momentum. While bullish technical indicators persist, the absence of clear macro drivers—such as regulatory clarity or ETF approvals—limits long-term upward potential. Analysts from Block Scholes emphasized that fragmented positioning across options chains could prolong volatility, as traders balance optimism with macroeconomic uncertainties [7].

The coming days will test market resilience against elevated volatility expectations. Traders are advised to monitor funding rates, volatility smiles, and key support/resistance levels to gauge risk appetite. Whether expirations trigger forced liquidations or orderly price adjustments will depend on liquidity depth and the speed of position rollovers.

Source: [1] [Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Expiry in July] [https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-ethereum-options-expire-july/]

[2] [15B Crypto Options Expiry and Market Impact] [https://cryptopotato.com/will-markets-continue-to-fall-when-15b-crypto-options-expire-today/]

[3] [BTC/ETH Options Expiry Volatility Analysis] [https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-options-expiration-trigger-12-3-billion-settlement-volatility-looms-july-25th-2507/]

[4] [Max Pain Levels and Options Expiry] [https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-options-12-3b-expiration-july-25-triggers-volatility-risk-2507/]

[5] [Derivatives and Spot Market Dynamics] [https://bitcoinworld.co.in/bitcoin-options-crucial-expiration/]

[6] [Crypto Options Bearish Sentiment] [https://blockchain.news/flashnews/crypto-options-market-signals-strong-bearish-sentiment-as-traders-hold-puts-despite-losses]

[7] [Options Positioning and Volatility Outlook] [https://www.mitrade.com/au/insights/news/live-news/article-3-983808-20250724]

[8] [BTC/ETH Volatility Skew Analysis] [https://beincrypto.com/bitcoin-ethereum-options-expire-july/]