Bitcoin News Today: U.S. 10-Year Yield Defies Bearish Signals, Sets Stage for 6% Breakout

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has entered a technical standoff that could soon break higher, mirroring a bullish setup seen in Bitcoin during its 2024 rally. Traders and analysts are watching closely as the yield, currently stuck near 4%, exhibits a divergence between its price action and bearish momentum indicators—a pattern historically followed by sharp upward moves. This scenario echoes Bitcoin's mid-2024 consolidation phase, which preceded a record-breaking surge to $100,000, as seen in the U.S. 10-Year Yield to 6%? Chart Pattern Echoes Bitcoin’s Bullish Setup From 2024 report.

The key to understanding this dynamic lies in the monthly MACD histogram, a widely used momentum indicator that has remained persistently bearish for nearly two years, suggesting a decline in the yield. Yet, despite these bearish signals, the yield has stubbornly held around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of a multi-decade downtrend. This creates a narrowing, contracting triangle—a technical pattern often associated with a sudden resumption of trends. Analysts note that such divergences typically reflect underlying bullish strength, as bond bears push yields higher despite fading momentum, as seen in the U.S. 10-Year Yield to 6%? Chart Pattern Echoes Bitcoin’s Bullish Setup From 2024 report.

Further reinforcing the bullish case, the yield's 50-, 100-, and 200-month simple moving averages (SMA) are stacked in a textbook bullish order, acting as layered floors of support. This configuration last occurred in the 1950s, followed by a near-three-decade uptrend in yields. Additionally, the Ichimoku cloud, a trend-filtering tool, confirms a constructive outlook, with the yield now firmly above its bounds for the first time since the 1980s, as noted in the U.S. 10-Year Yield to 6%? Chart Pattern Echoes Bitcoin’s Bullish Setup From 2024 report. These indicators collectively suggest a higher probability of a breakout above the 2023 high of 5.02%, with a potential target at 6.25%, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the long-term downtrend.

The parallels to Bitcoin's 2024 pattern are striking. At the time, Bitcoin traded between $55,000 and $70,000 while its MACD remained bearish. When the indicator finally crossed back above zero in October 2024, it triggered a rapid rally to over $100,000, as described in the U.S. 10-Year Yield to 6%? Chart Pattern Echoes Bitcoin’s Bullish Setup From 2024 report. This underscores a recurring market principle: technical indicators often lag price action, and markets can build strength beneath the surface before breaking out, as detailed in the U.S. 10-Year Yield to 6%? Chart Pattern Echoes Bitcoin’s Bullish Setup From 2024 report.

A renewed uptrend in the 10-year yield—a proxy for the "risk-free rate"—could have significant implications for risk assets. Higher yields typically weigh on equities and cryptocurrencies by increasing borrowing costs and reducing the present value of future cash flows. The recent resolution of the 40-day U.S. government shutdown, which restored market confidence and lifted Bitcoin to $106,000, adds a layer of complexity. Analysts now speculate that if inflation cools as expected, Bitcoin could test $112,000, fueled by a "dual catalyst" of political stability and improved economic data, as reported in the U.S. Shutdown Ends After 40 Days, Analysts Predict Bitcoin To Hit $112K report.

While the path to 6% is not guaranteed, the confluence of technical signals and historical precedents has traders bracing for a potential breakout. For now, the yield's range-bound behavior suggests a critical inflection point is near—one that could reshape the trajectory of both fixed-income markets and digital assets.