Bitcoin Nears All-Time High as Whales Hold Steady and Inflation Eases

Coin WorldThursday, Jun 12, 2025 5:26 am ET
2min read

Bitcoin (BTC) is once again in the spotlight as it approaches its all-time high, driven by bullish behavior from large holders and encouraging macroeconomic indicators. Currently trading around $107,865, the cryptocurrency briefly surpassed the $110,000 mark following the release of softer-than-expected US inflation data, reigniting investor optimism and hinting at a potential breakout in the coming weeks.

At the core of this momentum is the behavior of large BTC holders, whose recent actions suggest growing confidence in further upside rather than an imminent market top. Despite sitting just 2.82% below its record high of over $111,000, on-chain data reveals that major holders, referred to as whales, are not rushing to cash out. These entities are showing restraint, with little evidence of the typical profit-taking activity that often accompanies peak market phases. Analysts emphasize that whales appear to be waiting for a more euphoric market environment before initiating large-scale sell-offs, a behavior consistent with previous bull market tops.

Their reluctance to exit positions at these levels suggests they anticipate even higher valuations ahead, supporting the idea of Bitcoin entering a more extended price discovery phase. Further reinforcing the bullish outlook, analysts highlighted subdued exchange inflows from whales, particularly on Binance, even as Bitcoin flirts with historic highs. Historically, exchange inflows from large holders tend to spike when Bitcoin approaches or surpasses major resistance levels, often signaling a desire to take profits. However, current data tells a different story, with Binance inflows hovering around $3 billion, far below the $5.3 billion observed in early 2024 and even further from peaks of $8.45 billion in past cycles. This declining trend in whale inflows strongly indicates that big players are choosing to hold rather than sell, pointing to continued belief in further upside.

Such behavior has significant implications, as whale activity often influences market liquidity and can foreshadow broader sentiment shifts among institutional investors. Adding to Bitcoin’s tailwinds is the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which signaled a deceleration in US inflation for May 2025. The headline CPI rose just 0.1%, falling below the anticipated 0.2%, while the core CPI — excluding food and energy — also climbed only 0.1%, against forecasts of 0.3%. These figures not only reinforce the narrative of easing inflation but also increase the probability of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve later this year. Market participants are now expecting two cuts in 2025, with the first likely arriving in September and another in December. Lower interest rates tend to favor risk-on assets like Bitcoin, and the crypto market has already started pricing in this shift with renewed bullish enthusiasm.

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin (BTC) is also flashing strong bullish technical signals, with a golden cross forming on the weekly chart. This pattern, where the 50-day moving average has crossed above the 200-day moving average, is often viewed as a reliable indicator of sustained upward momentum. In addition, analysts like Jelle suggest that Bitcoin is primed for a lift-off after the recent breakout and the current retest. All eyes are on the Bank of Japan (BOJ) meeting next week, which is expected to take place just days before the US FOMC meeting. If the BOJ delays QT and restarts selected QE at its June meeting, risk assets like Bitcoin (BTC) are going to fly.

Ask Aime: Is Bitcoin approaching an all-time high, driven by bullish behavior from large holders and encouraging macroeconomic indicators?

The convergence of cooling inflation, dovish central bank expectations, and resolute whale behavior is creating a potent mix for Bitcoin’s next potential surge. With retail exuberance still largely absent and the market showing signs of healthy consolidation, Bitcoin may yet have considerable room to climb. As whales hold steady and macro conditions improve, the stage appears set for the cryptocurrency to test, and possibly surpass, its all-time high in the near term.