Bitcoin Nears All-Time High as Dollar Weakens and Sentiment Soars

Bitcoin's price has been closely watched by analysts and traders alike, with recent data suggesting that the cryptocurrency could break its all-time high (ATH) within the next seven days. According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr., historical patterns indicate that when Bitcoin's price rises steadily during a bull market without significant pullbacks, it often reaches a new record within approximately 50 days. Currently, it has been 47 days since Bitcoin last hit its ATH, and there has been no major correction of more than 20%.

Adler Jr. points out that in past bull runs, such as those in 2013, 2017, and 2021, Bitcoin has shown a similar pattern. When there were no substantial sell-offs, the cryptocurrency maintained its strength and reached new highs within a few weeks. The time between each new record has also shortened over the years, demonstrating the power of sustained buying pressure in a stable market.

The current market conditions align with this historical pattern. Volatility is low, and there have been no significant sell-offs, with Bitcoin holding steady near its peak levels. If these conditions persist, Bitcoin could test new price records within the next week. Supporting this outlook is the weakening U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which has historically correlated with strong Bitcoin performance. When the DXY trades below its 365-day moving average, Bitcoin tends to perform well, as seen in past data. Currently, the dollar is weakening, creating a favorable environment for Bitcoin's price.

Bitcoin's price is currently trading around $108,769, reflecting a slight rise in the last 24 hours. The cryptocurrency has been holding above key support levels, with growing institutional interest. However, it has struggled to break above the $110,500 mark, which could be a pivotal point for a new ATH. The weekly close for Bitcoin was another record, sealing July as a month for the record books. This has led to increased optimism among traders, with some predicting that Bitcoin could continue its upward trend and reach new all-time highs. The Fear & Greed Index is in "extreme" territory, indicating high levels of investor greed despite macro risks. This sentiment is mirrored in traditional financial markets, where the Fear & Greed Index is also at elevated levels.

Bitcoin's funding rates have been declining as its price rises, setting up a potential short squeeze. This mismatch between price direction and market sentiment often leads to forced short liquidations or margin top-ups, adding fuel to the upward move. The liquidity targets for Bitcoin include a dip to $105,000, which could be a good entry point for traders. The macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, with US trade tariffs and Fed policy being key talking points. The US Dollar Index has fallen by over 10% this year, which has been a tailwind for risk assets. However, the renewed buzz around US international trade tariffs underscores the divergence between the Trump administration and the Fed.

Despite the uncertainty, Bitcoin's price has been showing an upward trend, supported by technical and fundamental signals. The current price is around $108,200, with a wall of sellers at the $110,000-$112,000 range. The 12-hour Bitcoin chart shows BTC trading above key moving averages, struggling to break above the key resistance zone around $110,500. In conclusion, while Bitcoin's price has been volatile, there are signs that it could break its all-time high in the coming days. The growing institutional interest, declining funding rates, and bullish sentiment among traders all point to a potential upward move. However, traders should be cautious and conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.