Bitcoin Nears All-Time High as S&P 500 Hits Record 6,223.75

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading just below its peak at $107,249, less than 5% away from reclaiming its $112,000 all-time high. The S&P 500 index has reached a new all-time high of 6,223.75, driven by a series of bullish candles over the past five days. This surge has brought the 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) closer together, suggesting a potential bullish crossover in the near future. The index's rally has been fueled by geopolitical and macroeconomic volatility, with a 4.61% increase over the past five days. This optimism in the stock market has raised questions about whether Bitcoin will follow suit and reach new highs.

The correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 has been increasing since June 9, suggesting that Bitcoin could revisit its all-time high and potentially set a new one. The odds of a September rate cut have also spiked, which could fuel a risk-on sentiment and drive Bitcoin's next uptrend. The Time Price Opportunity (TPO) chart for Bitcoin highlights key levels to watch. The naked Point of Control (nPOC) formed at $109,650 on the June 11 trading session is the key resistance level to watch. On the contrary, the buy tails at $104,347 and $103,463 are key support levels. nPOC is the highest volume level on a particular trading session, while buy tails are inefficiencies formed during an impulsive uptrend. Buy tails offer demand and serve as support, while nPOC above the price acts as a resistance level.

Considering the S&P 500’s recent climb to an all-time high and the rising correlation between the index and Bitcoin, the chances of an uptrend are high. Moreover, the failure to produce a lower low during the ongoing consolidation adds credence to the demand and forecasts that the BTC price could revisit the nPOC at $109,650. The daily Bitcoin price chart shows clear signs of bullish momentum, suggesting that a new all-time high is not a question of 'if' but 'when.' The key characteristics that paint this optimism include the 50-day SMA at $105,844, which has prevented a breakdown over the past five days. The Awesome Oscillator (AO) has produced a green histogram above the mean level, indicating a shift in momentum favoring bulls. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above its mean level, indicating a market dominated by buyers. The declining parallel channel’s upper trend line will face a retest for the third time, with traders expecting a breakout. A decisive daily candlestick close above $107,858 will confirm the said breakout and potentially propel the BTC price to $112,424, which is a conservative target and is present just above the current all-time high of $112,000. A move to $116,923 would signal a new record high for BTC.

However, investors should be cautious as a breakdown of the $100,000 psychological level would invalidate the aforementioned bullish outlook. This development could trigger a flurry of panic sell orders, potentially leading to a liquidation cascade and catalyzing a swift correction to $96,852 and $93,375. These two levels served as a base that propelled the Bitcoin price up by nearly 20% to $112,000. Hence, investors can expect a short-term relief between $93,000 and $97,000. A dire case scenario could see the BTC price revisit $90,000, where an unfilled buy-side imbalance is present, reaching up to $87,000.

In conclusion, the 2025 Bitcoin price prediction remains bullish, with calming geopolitical tensions, a spike in September rate cut odds, and a buyer-skewed daily BTC chart. Therefore, investors can expect a new all-time high for BTC soon. However, traders need to be careful as a breakdown of the $100,000 psychological level would invalidate the aforementioned bullish outlook.