Bitcoin Nears Record Monthly Close With 30% Q2 Gain

Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching a pivotal moment as it nears record highs, with the monthly and quarterly closes setting the stage for potential significant price movements. The cryptocurrency needs to close June at $104,630 to achieve its highest-ever monthly close, a feat that would cement its impressive performance for the quarter. The week has been relatively calm in terms of US macroeconomic data, allowing market participants to focus on the Federal Reserve's actions following recent testimony by Chair Jerome Powell.

Bitcoin's price volatility has increased as traders engage in liquidity games, manipulating the order book to influence price movements. A recent uptick on June 29 placed BTC/USD on track for a record weekly close above $109,000, although this ultimately did not materialize. The trading range has held steady as June and Q2 come to an end, with data indicating a week-long consolidation period. Analysts have noted that algorithmic trading bots are playing a significant role in these price manipulations, with one bot liquidating a $12 million BTC short position before retracing its gains.

The monthly close is particularly important as it will determine the quarter's performance. Currently, Q2 is on track for a 30% gain, and June itself is poised to end on a positive note despite the volatility. Traders are optimistic that this month could serve as a springboard for further gains in the coming months. The limits to last-minute volatility will be decided by exchange order-book liquidity, with monitoring resources noting significant price magnets both above and below current levels. This could invite volatility over the next 24 to 48 hours as traders position themselves for the monthly close.

The US macroeconomic calendar is relatively quiet this week, with the Independence Day holiday rounding off the period. This allows crypto and risk-asset traders to focus on the split between Federal Reserve policy and political will. While many Fed officials remain steadfast in their determination not to cut interest rates, US President Donald Trump has openly criticized their decisions, calling for a fresh rate-cut cycle. This has led to speculation about potential changes in Fed policy, with markets currently seeing little chance of a cut at the next FOMC meeting but a 75% probability of a 0.25% reduction in September.

Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) are causing concern as Q2 comes to a close. The reactivation of dormant coins, combined with the newly-mined supply, is outpacing demand from buyers, creating a "critical demand deficit." This situation is bearish as it increases the 'for sale' supply, putting downward pressure on the price. Selling by LTHs, often considered 'smart money,' can signal that experienced players believe the market has reached a local top. CryptoQuant's Apparent Demand metric is now negative on a rolling 30-day basis, indicating a vulnerable market state. Any price rallies from here will likely struggle to overcome this wave of available supply, and market support may be weaker than anticipated.

Bitcoin's price action may be just several months away from its next bull market top. Analyst Rekt Capital has noted that historical price cycle behavior suggests that the blow-off top could be closer than many believe. If Bitcoin is going to peak in its Bull Market in September/October 2025, as per historical Halving cycles, that's only 2-3 months away. In 2024, BTC/USD hit new all-time highs ahead of schedule before April’s block subsidy halving event. However, history dictates that cycle highs ultimately come on time. If a slowdown is the case, BTC/USD should make up for lost time with significant gains and a return to price discovery sooner rather than later. This analysis suggests that Bitcoin's first Price Discovery Correction has lasted longer than usual, but when it breaks out into a parabolic rally, it would probably drastically reduce whatever 'cycle extension' BTC brought on itself over the past several months.