Bitcoin Nears $68,000, Gold Jumps as US-Iran Tensions Return

Bitcoin remains near $68,000 amid a volatile trading week, with key indicators showing reduced panic and cautious positioning. The 30-day implied volatility of BTC has fallen to 52%, down from a peak of nearly 100% in early February. However, the asset remains under pressure as U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see redemptions, reflecting weak institutional demand.

Gold steadied near $5,000 an ounce on Thursday as traders assessed rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East. U.S. President Donald Trump indicated a short timeline for a nuclear deal with Iran, while the path of U.S. interest rates remains uncertain, affecting bullion prices.

Bitcoin's Short-Term Holder Bollinger Band reading has reached extreme oversold territory, a pattern historically associated with major market bottoms. This suggests potential for a reversal, with heavy hitters holding through the pullback rather than selling.

Why the Move Happened

Bitcoin's recent price action reflects a combination of reduced panic and cautious buying. The decline in implied volatility suggests market participants are no longer aggressively hedging against risks. At the same time, BTC perpetuals show mild bullish leanings, as funding rates remain just above zero.

The decline in Bitcoin ETF outflows indicates some stabilization in institutional appetite, but redemptions continue to dominate, showing that long-term confidence remains fragile.

Gold's rise is being driven by a renewed risk-off mood as U.S.-Iran tensions escalate. The geopolitical uncertainty is pushing investors toward safe-haven assets, with bullion prices responding accordingly.

How Markets Responded

Bitcoin's price has been consolidating within a range between $65,729 and $71,746 since mid-February. The asset has rebounded from key support levels but remains below critical resistance. A close below $65,729 could send BTC toward $60,000, while a recovery above $71,746 would signal renewed bullish momentum.

Ethereum is trading near $2,000, with limited upside momentum. The Spent Output Profit Ratio for ETH has fallen to 0.92, the lowest since April 2025, indicating that many investors are selling at a loss. This often reflects panic during prolonged consolidation phases.

Gold has seen a two-day rally, with spot prices rising 0.1% to $5,001.07 an ounce. The bullion's performance has been influenced by the U.S. dollar, which has gained 0.8% for the week on the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index.

What Analysts Are Watching

Bitcoin's next directional move will depend on whether it can break out of its consolidation range. A successful retest of key resistance levels could signal renewed investor confidence and potentially drive BTC toward $71,746 or higher.

Gold's immediate direction remains uncertain as traders await U.S. economic data, particularly the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, which will offer insight into the Federal Reserve's policy trajectory.

Ethereum's price action is also being closely watched, with analysts noting that a breakout above $2,051 could push ETH toward $2,241 and eventually $2,395. However, a close below $1,747 would indicate renewed bearish sentiment.