Bitcoin Nears $113K as Bulls Battle Max Pain and Whale Exodus

Bitcoin (BTC) has surged past $113,000, marking its highest price since late August and signaling renewed bullish momentum in the leading cryptocurrency. According to CoinDesk data, the price recovery has been bolstered by an increase in Bitcoin’s market dominance, which climbed to nearly 59%—a two-week high—suggesting a return of capital inflows into BTC after recent outflows to Ethereum [1]. The rally has also coincided with the approach of U.S. Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations and the U.S. jobs report, both of which could influence broader risk sentiment.

Technical analysts have highlighted key price levels to watch as Bitcoin consolidates. The $112,550 and $113,000 resistance levels are seen as critical hurdles for bulls, with a successful breakout potentially leading to a test of the $114,200 level and even the $115,000 target [2]. The 50% and 76.4% Fibonacci retracement levels have played a role in recent resistance, with bears showing strength near $112,600 [2]. Meanwhile, support levels are positioned at $110,800 and $110,000, with further downside risk to $108,800 and $107,500 if bears regain control.

The market’s recent dynamics have also drawn attention to the max pain theory, a concept used in traditional options markets. On the eve of a major BTC options expiry on Deribit, the max pain level was calculated at $112,000, the price point where options buyers would suffer the largest losses [1]. Traders speculated that large institutional players may have influenced Bitcoin’s price action to approach this level, aligning with the theory. However, while the theory is well-established in traditional markets, its efficacy in the cryptocurrency space remains a subject of debate.

Liquidity conditions on order books have added another layer of complexity. Data from on-chain analytics platforms like CoinGlass shows a concentration of ask liquidity stacked near $113,000, raising the possibility of short-term price suppression [4]. Traders are closely monitoring whether buyers can assert control and push through this resistance. An analysis by Skew Δ noted that underlying short positioning has increased during the upward move, while bid depth has weakened, suggesting potential profit-taking and bearish sentiment among some participants [4].

Looking ahead, the broader macroeconomic environment and the upcoming U.S. jobs report could provide the next major catalyst. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in its meeting on September 17, with financial markets pricing in at least a 25 basis point reduction. Lower rates typically increase investor appetite for risk assets, potentially favoring Bitcoin [6]. However, analysts caution that if the rate cut is accompanied by weak economic data or a recessionary outlook, it could undermine market confidence and pressure Bitcoin prices [7]. Market observers are also tracking volatility indicators such as the VIX, which suggests that uncertainty could intensify after the Fed’s decision [6].

On-chain data further reveals that large Bitcoin holders, or “whales,” have been selling at the highest rate since July 2022, with over 115,000 BTC liquidated in the past month alone. This selling pressure has contributed to short-term bearish momentum, but analysts argue that institutional support and ETF inflows have so far offset some of this activity [5]. Weekly flows for spot Bitcoin ETFs have remained positive, adding $246 million in the latest week, which indicates ongoing interest from institutional investors [5].

Despite the bullish signals, the market remains cautious. While Bitcoin has reclaimed key technical levels, it lacks strong spot demand to sustain the rally. As noted by crypto investor Ted Pillows, the current upswing is primarily driven by perpetual futures and derivatives, with limited participation from spot market buyers [3]. Until this changes, the sustainability of the rally remains under scrutiny.

Source:

[1] Bitcoin Hits $113K as BTC Dominance Approaches Two (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-hits-113k-btc-dominance-083413261.html)

[2] Bitcoin Price Struggles Near $113K – Will Bulls Force a ... (https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1106331-20250909)

[3] Bitcoin taps $113K as analysis sees 'return to highs' on Fed ... (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-taps-113k-analysis-sees-return-to-highs-on-fed-rate-cut)

[4] BTC Order Book Alert: Ask Liquidity Stacks at $113K, ... (https://blockchain.news/flashnews/btc-order-book-alert-ask-liquidity-stacks-at-113k-shorts-rise-on-decent-4h-close-watch-buyer-control)

[5] Bitcoin whale selling hits highest level since July 2022 (https://forklog.com/en/bitcoin-whale-selling-hits-highest-level-since-july-2022/)

[6] BTC, Stocks News: Calm Ahead of Fed Rate Cut, Storm Later (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/08/market-storm-likely-after-september-fed-interest-rate-cut-vix-suggests)

[7] Could an Interest Rate Cut from the Fed Help or Hurt Bitcoin? (https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/could-interest-rate-cut-fed-help-or-hurt-bitcoin)