Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Rebounds 12 Days Ago, Holds Above $108K

Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio has rebounded off its 365-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), indicating a potential continuation of the trend if the support holds. This rebound, which occurred twelve days ago, is being closely monitored as an indicator of bullish continuity. With Bitcoin holding above $108K, the setup signals long-term confidence, provided the ‘MVRV > SMA365’ condition is maintained.

However, the bullish sentiment needs to be supported by actual on-chain participation. Price alone cannot sustain the momentum. The Net Realized Profit/Loss (NRPL) rose by 2.27%, recording $293 million in net profits by participants. This reflects a moderate round of profit-taking, but not enough to trigger a sell-off. Such behavior is typical of mid-cycle environments, where traders are locking in gains gradually without abandoning the broader uptrend. The absence of large-scale sell-offs shows that participants still expect Bitcoin to march higher.

On the other hand, Bitcoin’s Transaction Count dropped to 85.9K, and Network Growth dipped to 65.8K—both hovering near monthly lows. These declines indicate fewer new participants and reduced on-chain interaction. While this could raise red flags, it also suggests that speculative froth has cleared. Therefore, bulls may interpret this as a reset, not a breakdown. However, if activity remains low for an extended period, momentum could wane. For now, price stability despite these weak signals shows a disconnection between adoption and valuation trends.

Social Dominance for Bitcoin spiked to 34.92%, its highest point in 2025 so far. This spike revealed growing market attention, often tied to speculative excitement. However, such spikes have previously marked local tops, especially when not backed by on-chain strength. Therefore, rising attention may be a double-edged sword. While it drives awareness and inflows, it also increases volatility.

At press time, Bitcoin held firmly above its 9-day and 21-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovered around 55, signaling mild bullish momentum. This setup reflects structural health, as the EMAs provide dynamic support. However, the momentum is fragile. Price needs to break above $110K and RSI must climb past 60 to attract fresh buyers. Until then, sideways movement could continue. Still, the EMAs act as a strong base, allowing bulls to attempt another push if sentiment aligns and volume returns.

Despite lackluster activity on-chain, Bitcoin’s key structural signals remain intact. Metrics like the MVRV Ratio, EMAs, and modest NRPL gains suggest bulls haven’t lost ground. That said, falling Transaction Count and rising Social Dominance hint at a fragility beneath the surface. Bitcoin remains bullish—but not invincible. If volume revives and on-chain participation returns, another leg up may follow. Until then, patience and caution rule the day.