Bitcoin's MVRV Ratio Nears Key Level as Futures Open Interest Surges 20%

Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is currently at 2.13, just below its 365-day Simple Moving Average (SMA365) of 2.14. This level has historically been a pivotal point for mid-term bullish reversals. Market participants are closely watching this crossover, as a confirmed weekly close above the SMA365 could signal the start of a stronger recovery phase. However, if Bitcoin fails to reclaim this level, it could face renewed selling pressure, undermining the current momentum.

Open Interest across Bitcoin Futures markets has surged by 20% in the past 20 days, exceeding $26 billion. This indicates an aggressive buildup in speculative positioning. The Estimated Leverage Ratio has also risen by 0.99%, showing that traders are increasingly relying on margin to amplify their bets. While rising leverage can fuel stronger short-term price moves, it also increases the risk of volatile liquidation cascades if sentiment shifts abruptly.

Bitcoin recently broke out of a falling wedge formation, a bullish technical signal suggesting potential for sustained upside. However, at the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading at $94,036, down 0.71% over 24 hours. This minor pullback indicates that sellers are still aggressively defending the $95,783 resistance zone. A clean daily close above this level is needed to validate the bullish setup and aim for further gains. Conversely, failure to breach this resistance could see the price slide back toward the $83,462 support level.

Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow (S2F) ratio, which measures scarcity, has declined by 22.22%. While this adds short-term pressure to the traditional bullish model, it does not entirely undermine Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals. Instead, it highlights that immediate price movements are now more sensitive to liquidity trends, leverage dynamics, and investor sentiment shifts.

The liquidation map shows dense, long liquidation clusters for Bitcoin between $93,000 and $94,000, creating a critical support zone. A sustained dip below these levels could trigger a cascade of liquidations, potentially driving the price down to $91,000. Conversely, if Bitcoin breaks and holds above $95,783, the liquidation density thins significantly, paving the way for a rapid upward move with minimal resistance. This reduced overhead liquidation pressure strengthens the bullish outlook, provided momentum picks up again.

In conclusion, Bitcoin is at a critical decision point. The rising leverage, MVRV ratio positioning, and wedge breakout all suggest a bullish continuation if the $95,783 resistance is flipped into support. If Bitcoin maintains strength and clears this level, the rally could extend aggressively. However, failure to do so will likely expose Bitcoin to sharp corrections toward lower liquidity zones.