Bitcoin's MVRV Oscillator Signals $130,900 Resistance Level

Bitcoin's MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) oscillator, a widely used on-chain metric, has been instrumental in identifying potential tops and bottoms in Bitcoin’s price cycles over the past four years. This tool has consistently indicated market turning points, both for buying opportunities during lows and potential sell signals during price peaks.

According to the latest analysis, when Bitcoin’s MVRV reaches a value of 2.75, it typically aligns with a strong resistance level. If this trend continues, Bitcoin could reach a price of approximately $130,900 USD before encountering significant selling pressure. This $130K target is not arbitrary; it is grounded in historical performance. Each time the MVRV ratio approached the 2.75 level in past bull cycles, Bitcoin saw major corrections or slowed growth shortly afterward. This has made the 2.75 mark a reliable early signal for traders and investors looking to de-risk at market highs.

While it doesn’t guarantee an immediate crash, this level often represents a psychological and technical barrier where many long-term holders begin to realize profits. The current market structure and on-chain metrics suggest that this level is the likely first major wall. Investors should consider this MVRV level as a strategic exit point rather than a panic signal. As Bitcoin continues its climb, hitting $130,900 could mark the beginning of wider distribution in the market. It’s important to monitor not just price, but also behavior around this MVRV threshold.

For traders, this offers a chance to plan exits or rebalance portfolios in line with historically backed data, rather than pure speculation. Bitcoin has been trading in a tight range just below the $110,000 mark, currently hovering around $108,700. This consolidation phase has been ongoing for over a month, with BTC fluctuating between $100,000 and $110,000. Analysts are interpreting this behavior as a potential new structural bottom, similar to previous cycle lows. The outflow/inflow ratio on cryptocurrency exchanges, which compares the amount of BTC being withdrawn from exchanges to the amount being deposited, is currently around 0.9. This ratio suggests that more BTC is being taken off exchanges than being sent in, indicating accumulation and long-term holding behavior. Historically, this pattern has correlated with long-term bullish trends.

The price range compression between $100,000 and $110,000 reflects market confidence, with institutional and long-term retail investors treating this zone as a buying opportunity. Despite short-term volatility, prices have quickly returned to the broader consolidation range, suggesting a fundamental shift in market dynamics. Another significant signal supporting the bottom thesis is the movement of long-dormant BTC. Nearly 19,400 BTC, worth over $2 billion, recently moved out of wallets that had been inactive for three to seven years. This activity is typically associated with major institutional investors involved in over-the-counter (OTC) deals or strategic accumulation strategies. The transfer of such large amounts to active wallets indicates that serious investors are positioning themselves for long-term gains, treating the $100,000–$110,000 range as a prime accumulation zone.

Comparing the current setup to previous market cycles adds further credibility to the bottom theory. In December 2022, BTC had reached a multi-year low of around $15,500, and several on-chain indicators aligned to confirm a bottom. Fast forward to 2025, and similar conditions are being observed, suggesting that the cycle structure may be repeating, only this time from a six-figure base. This comparison strengthens the hypothesis that Bitcoin is on the verge of another significant upward trend. While the data paints an optimistic picture, potential risks remain. Technical resistance zones between $110,000 and $115,000 must be breached convincingly for a true breakout to occur. Additionally, some valuation metrics, such as the MVRV Z-Score, still indicate that BTC may not be oversold from a long-term perspective, implying that more sideways movement could be ahead. Regulatory uncertainty, especially in the U.S., also remains a wildcard that could temporarily disrupt bullish momentum. Nevertheless, the presence of strong fundamental signals suggests that any downside would likely be limited and short-lived.

For Bitcoin to confirm a new bull phase, several milestones must be reached. First, a sustained breakout above the $112,000 level would signal renewed upward momentum. Secondly, observing a positive flip in the cumulative volume delta would indicate that buying pressure is finally overwhelming sellers. Lastly, continued net exchange outflows and further movement of dormant coins would support the idea of long-term confidence returning to the market. Should all these indicators align, BTC could enter a new price discovery phase, with potential targets ranging from $130,000 to $150,000 before the end of 2025.