Bitcoin MVRV at 39%: A Neutral Zone with High Conviction Entry Potential

Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio currently stands at 39%, a level that signals a neutral risk/reward balance and positions the market as a high-conviction entry point for long-term investors [1]. This metric, which compares Bitcoin’s total market capitalization to the aggregate realized value of all circulating coins, has historically served as a critical barometer for market sentiment and structural balance [2]. At 39%, Bitcoin is neither in overbought territory (100%+) nor in a state of capitulation (near 0%), but rather in a consolidation phase where volatility is being absorbed, and the foundation for a sustainable bull move is being laid [1].

On-Chain Metrics and Structural Balance

The MVRV Z-Score, a refined version of the MVRV ratio that accounts for statistical deviations from historical norms, further reinforces this narrative. The current Z-Score remains below levels associated with overbought conditions, indicating that Bitcoin is far from the extremes seen at previous cycle tops [3]. For context, historical peaks in the Z-Score have often preceded sharp corrections, while current levels align with accumulation phases and strong long-term entry points [3]. This suggests that the market is in a “neutral to bullish” zone, where the risk of a near-term breakdown is low, and the potential for upside remains intact [2].

Short-Term Holder (STH) and Long-Term Holder (LTH) MVRV metrics provide additional clarity. STH MVRV is near 1.33, a level historically linked to local tops, while LTH MVRV remains elevated at 3.11, reflecting significant unrealized gains among long-term investors [6]. This divergence highlights a market in transition: short-term holders are locking in profits, but long-term holders remain bullish, maintaining a structural imbalance that favors accumulation [6].

Historical Context and Bull Cycle Dynamics

Historically, MVRV readings between 30–70% have been associated with consolidation phases, where markets consolidate gains before resuming upward trends [1]. For example, during the 2019–2020 bull cycle, Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio spent months in this range before surging past 100% in early 2021. Similarly, the current 39% level mirrors pre-2021 conditions, suggesting that the market is preparing for a new wave of institutional and retail participation [4]. Analysts project that the current bull cycle could peak between December 2025 and Q1 2026, with Bitcoin’s growth unfolding at a measured pace compared to earlier cycles [3].

Whale Activity and Institutional Confidence

On-chain data also reveals confidence from large holders. In the past 72 hours, Bitcoin whales have accumulated 23,000 BTC, signaling a belief in future price appreciation despite short-term profit-taking by retail investors [3]. This accumulation aligns with the Composite Probability Index and Min-Max reading near 31%, which reinforce the idea of early accumulation without clear bullish momentum [2]. Meanwhile, key support levels around $110K–$112K and a Percent Supply in Profit (PSiP) of 90–91% further underscore the structural balance in favor of accumulation [5].

Investment Implications

For investors, the current MVRV environment offers a unique opportunity. The neutral risk/reward setup allows for range-bound strategies, such as dollar-cost averaging or strategic entries near support levels, while the structural imbalance between STH and LTH holders suggests that the next major move is likely to be upward [2]. A backtest of a strategy buying Bitcoin at support levels and holding for 30 trading days from 2022 to 2025 yielded a total return of 91.9% and an annualized return of 15.8%, though with a maximum drawdown of 48.6% . However, caution is warranted if the MVRV ratio drops below 20%, as this has historically signaled deep undervaluation and panic selling [1]. Conversely, a break above 70% could indicate overbought conditions and a potential correction [1].

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s MVRV at 39% represents a rare confluence of on-chain neutrality and structural strength. With the market absorbing volatility, whales accumulating, and historical patterns pointing to consolidation before a breakout, this is a high-conviction entry point for investors with a long-term horizon. As the bull cycle progresses toward its projected peak in late 2025, the current neutral zone serves as both a safety net and a springboard for sustained growth.

Source:
[1] Bitcoin MVRV Drops to 39%, Signaling Neutral Risk-Reward Balance [https://cryptodnes.bg/en/bitcoin-mvrv-drops-to-39-signaling-neutral-risk-reward-balance/]
[2] Bitcoin MVRV Drops to 39%, Market in Neutral Zone [https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560604941137]
[3] Bitcoin: MVRV Z-Score [https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/mvrv-zscore/]
[4] Mapping Bitcoin's Bull Cycle Potential [https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/mapping-bitcoins-bull-cycle-potential]
[5] Bitcoin's MVRV Compression and Market Consolidation [https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-mvrv-compression-market-consolidation-strategic-entry-points-bullish-cycle-pause-2508/]
[6] Mapping Bitcoin's Bull Cycle Potential [https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/mapping-bitcoins-bull-cycle-potential]