Bitcoin Moves Toward 2026 at a Turning Point for the Crypto Market

Bitcoin (BTC) has shown mixed momentum in early 2026, with price action and ETF inflows fluctuating amid investor sentiment shifts. The cryptocurrency traded above $92,000 at the time of writing on Tuesday, rebounding from a previously broken horizontal channel pattern. Spot ETFs recorded inflows, but the overall net inflow for the first week of January was negative.

A major corporate buyer, Strategy Inc., contributed to Bitcoin’s price recovery by purchasing 13,627 BTC at an average cost of $91,519, totaling $1.25 billion. This purchase marked Strategy’s largest Bitcoin buy since July 2025 and increased its total holdings to 687,410 coins. The move reinforced investor confidence in Bitcoin as a corporate asset.

Despite these positive developments, Bitcoin spot ETFs opened 2026 with a $681 million net outflow. Early inflows on January 5 were erased by four consecutive days of redemptions, signaling caution among institutional investors. BlackRock’s IBIT ETF recorded the largest net inflow of the week, while Fidelity’s FBTC experienced the largest net outflow.

Why the Move Happened

Bitcoin’s price recovery in early 2026 was driven by a combination of corporate buying and ETF inflows. Strategy Inc.’s purchase of $1.25 billion in Bitcoin contributed to a short-term price boost. ETFs also played a role, with spot ETFs experiencing inflows and outflows as investors adjusted their positions.

The market’s reaction to the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data also influenced Bitcoin’s price. The release of December CPI data, expected to show a 0.3% monthly increase, impacted investor sentiment and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook. Bitcoin’s price found support around $90,000 and recovered slightly through Monday.

How Markets Responded

Bitcoin’s rebound was supported by institutional demand and retail investor behavior. U.S. spot ETFs recorded a mild inflow of $116.67 million on Monday, breaking a four-day streak of outflows. Strategy’s accumulation strategy and long-term conviction in Bitcoin were evident, with the company continuing to build its reserves.

Ethereum (ETH) and XRP also saw mixed performances. Ethereum spot ETFs posted mild inflows of $5 million, while XRP spot ETFs extended their inflow streak. XRP ETFs recorded $15 million in inflows on Monday, with Bitwise’s XRP ETF leading the way.

What Analysts Are Watching

Analysts are closely monitoring Bitcoin’s price action and ETF flows to gauge market sentiment. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $91,595 became a key level to watch, with a close above it potentially extending the rally toward $94,253. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators also provided insights into bullish momentum.

Wintermute, a major liquidity provider, outlined three scenarios for Bitcoin’s 2026 recovery: ETF mandate expansion beyond BTC and ETH, a major price rally creating wealth effects, and retail investors returning from AI and equities. These scenarios highlight the importance of regulatory developments and investor behavior in shaping the market.

Investors are also watching for any surprises in the U.S. CPI data and their impact on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions. Any deviation from expected results could inject fresh volatility into Bitcoin and other risky assets.