Bitcoin's Next Move Hinges on Fed Fears and Global Crypto Momentum

Bitcoin’s price remains range-bound amid a dual narrative of cautious optimism and rising market uncertainty, with analysts forecasting a potential volatility spike by the end of September. A 30-day Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) model analysis by CryptoOnchain predicts a 1.72% decline in Bitcoin’s price, taking it from $110,669 to $108,771 over the next month. The model also indicates a sharp increase in price uncertainty, suggesting a possible sharp move, either up or down, in the final week of the period. Meanwhile, the market is also bracing for a Federal Reserve rate cut, expected on September 17, which could bring temporary stability, followed by a surge in volatility as the broader stock market braces for turbulence.

The VIX, or Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” reflects the anticipation of increased uncertainty. The spread between October VIX futures and the September contract has widened to 2.2%, an extreme level historically. This suggests that traders are currently underestimating risk ahead of the Fed meeting, but expect it to rise sharply afterward. As the VIX is closely correlated with stock price movements—rising during periods of market stress—investors are wary that a post-Fed decision environment could lead to a downswing in equities. Given Bitcoin’s well-documented alignment with Wall Street’s mood, such volatility in the stock market could quickly spill over into the crypto space, reinforcing a bearish outlook for risk assets.

This tension in the market is further underscored by recent global trends in digital asset adoption. The United States has climbed to second place in the Chainalysis Global Crypto Adoption Index for 2025, trailing only India, largely due to regulatory developments such as the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs and the launch of a strategic Bitcoin reserve under President Donald Trump. Simultaneously, the Asia-Pacific region emerged as the fastest-growing market in the world for digital assets, driven by strong engagement in countries like India, Vietnam, and Pakistan. The report attributes this growth to both regulatory momentum and institutional interest, particularly with the U.S. remaining the largest fiat on-ramp for crypto, with over $4.2 trillion in transaction volume.

Eastern Europe also showed strong grassroots adoption, particularly in countries like Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia, where high levels of digital activity relative to population size suggest crypto is being used as an alternative to traditional financial systems amid economic instability and banking restrictions. Stablecoins, meanwhile, remain a central component of the growing crypto ecosystem, with Tether (USDT) and USD Coin (USDC) dominating transaction volume. Between June 2024 and June 2025, USDT averaged over $1 trillion in monthly volume, while USDC saw peaks as high as $3.29 trillion, particularly in October 2024.

Amid this evolving backdrop, South Korea has been highlighted as a key player in the global crypto landscape. Eric Trump, during a virtual appearance at the Upbit D Conference, praised the country’s enthusiasm and infrastructure, calling it second only to the U.S. in crypto adoption. He warned that countries slow to embrace digital assets risk becoming irrelevant in the global financial and AI landscape. His comments align with broader market trends that show digital assets continuing to disrupt traditional financial systems and gain traction as alternatives for wealth preservation, cross-border payments, and institutional investment.