Bitcoin's Momentum Weakens as Price Struggles Above $109,000

Bitcoin's recent price action has sparked concerns among traders and analysts, as the cryptocurrency's momentum appears to be weakening. The cryptocurrency has struggled to maintain levels above $109,000, with immediate selling pressure dominating short-term market behavior. This comes after Bitcoin failed to establish new highs following a breakout above a bull flag on the daily chart, slipping below key levels and recording a mild daily drop.

Technical signals across different timeframes are mixed, indicating market uncertainty. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to neutral, neither overbought nor oversold, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram shows decreasing momentum despite being above zero. This suggests that neither bulls nor bears have a strong conviction in the market. The 50-day moving average offers strong support around $102,000, while the 200-day moving average, near $95,000, further strengthens the long-term bullish case. As long as Bitcoin holds above these levels, upward momentum remains valid.

Resistance levels are identified at $111,000 and $109,000. If these zones are broken, Bitcoin might climb to $115,000 or even $120,000. However, volume trends indicate a concerning tendency, with daily trade volumes decreasing from previous heights of $85 billion to $65 billion. Such low volumes typically precede significant market movements, suggesting that a bigger move could be on the horizon.

Bitcoin's 4-hour price structure remains within an ascending support line, but momentum indicators suggest a potential weakening of bullish momentum. Bulls are facing strong resistance at $110,500, while short-term supports have formed near $107,200. The current price action is testing a key ascending trendline that originated from the June 23 low. The price has stalled near $108,000 after rejecting the $110,800–$111,000 supply zone, where multiple failed breakouts occurred. The Supertrend indicator remains bullish above $106,997, and the rising trendline is intact. However, the Directional Movement Index (DMI) shows weakening strength in both +DI and -DI, with the Average Directional Index (ADX) sliding, suggesting reduced trend momentum.

The 4-hour Bollinger Bands are contracting, indicating reduced volatility. The price is currently riding the mid-band near $108,600. A breakout beyond the upper band ($110,600) or a break below $107,000 will likely define the next directional move. Bearish divergences and resistance exhaustion are contributing to the recent price decline. On the 30-minute chart, the RSI shows two clear bearish divergence labels while the price made higher highs, signaling weakening bullish momentum. The RSI currently sits near 44.4, indicating a shift below neutral. The MACD on the same timeframe shows a negative crossover and flat histogram, further confirming the lack of upward momentum.

Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) analysis shows BTC trading just below the session VWAP of $108,186, with the upper deviation line acting as dynamic resistance. This is pressuring intraday traders and short-term scalpers. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) remains positive (0.23), suggesting inflow remains supportive, although it has declined slightly from earlier sessions. Liquidity zones on the lower timeframes indicate strong demand between $107,000 and $106,800, while overhead supply sits at $108,800–$109,400, capping short-term rallies.

The Bitcoin price continues to coil within a compression zone as indicated by tight Bollinger Band width and symmetrical triangle structure on lower timeframes. Open interest has dropped -2.6% in the past 24 hours, while options volume dipped -7.7%. This reflects a general cooldown in aggressive positioning. Despite this, options open interest rose +3.69%, signaling hedge-based accumulation, likely due to directional uncertainty. The derivatives dashboard also shows more long bias from top traders, but the overall long/short account ratio across exchanges remains neutral at 0.97 — another sign of hesitation.

The next 24 hours are pivotal. If bulls maintain the ascending trendline and reclaim the $108,800–$109,000 resistance band, Bitcoin price spikes toward $110,500 are likely. However, rejection near this zone and a break below $107,000 could open the door toward $106,200 and possibly $105,500. Traders should monitor whether the price can hold above the Supertrend support at $106,997 and the lower Bollinger Band. Any candle close below these levels with volume may confirm a breakdown. If the RSI recovers above 50 and MACD crosses positive again, upside targets will re-engage.

In summary, Bitcoin's price is currently in a consolidation phase, with key support and resistance levels at $107,000 and $110,500 respectively. Momentum indicators suggest a potential waning of bullish momentum, and the next 24 hours will be crucial in determining the short-term direction of the price. Traders should closely monitor the key support and resistance levels, as well as the momentum indicators, to make informed trading decisions. Despite short-term dips, Bitcoin remains in a long-term uptrend with analysts eyeing $115,000 by August and $1 million in future targets.