Bitcoin Mining Shutdown Prices: S21 and M60 Series at Risk

The Bitcoin network is signaling widespread miner attrition through a dramatic drop in mining difficulty. The metric fell 7.76% to 133.68 trillion at block 941,472, one of the largest adjustments in recent memory. This steep decline is the direct mechanism: as miners shut down machines due to poor economics, block production slows, triggering the automatic difficulty reset.

This shutdown wave has pushed specific hardware models to or below their electricity cost break-even. According to Antpool data, machines including the Antminer S19 XP+ Hyd, WhatsMiner M60S, Avalon A1466I, and some models of the Antminer S21 series have reached shutdown price. For the higher-end Antminer S21 models, the critical price range is tight, with shutdown prices hovering around $65,000 to $69,000.

The network's hashrate has consequently fallen to approximately 915 exahash per second, well below the 1 zettahash level it previously maintained. This reduction in competition provides a near-term relief valve for remaining miners, as the same hashrate now produces more blocks. . However, the scale of the difficulty drop underscores that the current Bitcoin price, trading around $70,000, is insufficient to cover the operating costs for a significant portion of the mining fleet.

The Profitability Ladder

The economics of Bitcoin mining are not a single number but a layered ladder. At the base sits the electricity break-even, the minimum price needed just to cover power costs. For current network conditions, that figure is $64,635 per BTC. Above it, the operating break-even-covering all running costs like maintenance and salaries-sits at $74,444 per BTC. The full accounting break-even, which includes non-cash depreciation, is even higher at $114,130 per BTC.

This creates a critical spread. Even at a Bitcoin price of $67,200, a miner can cover its electricity bill while still reporting a loss on its operating and accounting books. The gap between the electricity and accounting break-even is approximately $49,500 per BTC. This means many miners are running at a loss, surviving on cash flow from their treasury or balance sheet to fund operations and capital expenditures.

The position a miner occupies on this ladder is determined by two primary variables: hardware efficiency and electricity rates. More efficient ASICs, measured in joules per terahash (J/TH), consume less power per unit of work. Similarly, securing low-cost electricity, ideally under $0.10 per kWh, is the single biggest factor in profitability. The recent difficulty drop has pushed models like the S21 and M60S to the electricity break-even, but their ability to climb higher on the profitability ladder depends entirely on these two cost drivers.

Catalysts and Watchpoints

The current shutdown wave will reverse or deepen based on two immediate price thresholds. The first is a hashrate recovery to approximately 915 exahash per second. This level, which the network has fallen below, would require Bitcoin to hold above its current electricity break-even of $64,635 per BTC. The recent difficulty drop has provided a near-term relief valve, but sustained price action above this level is needed to incentivize miners to bring offline machines back online.

The second, more critical test is a sustained move above the operating break-even of $74,444 per BTC. This price is necessary for miners to cover all running costs, including maintenance and salaries. The current price, hovering around $70,000, leaves a significant gap. If Bitcoin fails to clear this threshold, the attrition of higher-cost miners will likely continue, keeping hashrate depressed and difficulty low.

A key watchpoint is the spread between the power and accounting break-even, which stands at roughly $49,500 per BTC. A narrowing of this gap signals that miners are being forced to exit, as they cannot cover even their electricity costs while still reporting losses on operating and accounting lines. Monitoring this spread, alongside the hashrate recovery and price action above $74,444, will determine whether the network is stabilizing or entering a deeper phase of miner attrition.