Bitcoin Mimics 2022 'Bear Market Rally' Despite 21% BTC Price Gains

Bitcoin ETFs gained $843.62 million in net inflows on January 14, reversing a week of outflows and bringing total assets to $128.04 billion, representing 6.56% of Bitcoin's market cap. The inflows indicate a shift in investor sentiment and increased confidence in the asset class after a period of volatility. Market observers are watching closely to see if this momentum can be sustained. Bitcoin's price has seen a 21% increase since November 2025, though analysts caution that this may only be a bear market rally.

Bitcoin reached a new 2026 high above $97,000, with technical indicators suggesting bulls aim for a move beyond $100,000. The price closed above $95,000 on a daily basis, weakening immediate resistance levels and setting the stage for a potential breakout. Binance reported a net taker volume exceeding $500 million in a single hourly candle, signaling aggressive market buying.

Exchange inflows picked up significantly, with total Bitcoin entering exchanges reaching a 7-day average of 39,000 BTC. This trend raises concerns among onchain analysts, who note that increased inflows can signal impending selling pressure. The recent price action appears to mirror the 2022 bear market rally, where BTC experienced a 19% rally to $97.9K before confirming a bearish trend.

Why Did This Happen?

The current price action bears a strong resemblance to the 2022 bear market rally pattern. Bitcoin crossed below its 365-day moving average (MA), which historically marks the start of a bear market. It has since rallied by 19% to $97.9K, approaching the $101K MA level. The 365-day MA acts as a critical technical level for identifying long-term market direction.

In 2022, a similar scenario played out, with BTC rallying by 47% after crossing below its 365-day MA before being rejected at the same level. This historical parallel has led some analysts to warn that the current rally might not signal the end of the bear market.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

The price of Bitcoin remains below its yearly moving average, raising concerns that the current bullish movement might be short-lived. The ability to break above $101,000 will be crucial for confirming a bullish trend. Analysts are closely watching whether the recent inflows are for accumulation or early signs of distribution.

CryptoQuant notes that the current price trajectory is playing out similarly to 2022, with divergences from the 2018 bear market pattern. While there are signs of strength, including increased inflows to Coinbase Advanced, the overall market environment still indicates a bearish trend according to analysis.

The Coinbase Premium Index has shown a gradual reset after sustained selling pressure, suggesting reduced panic from US-based investors. However, the index remains net-negative, indicating that selling pressure has not fully subsided.

What Could Be Next for BTC Price?

The next target for Bitcoin appears to be $103,500, with limited resistance above $95,000. If bulls manage to push through this level, it could trigger a broader market rally. However, bear market risk remains below $101,000, where the 365-day MA acts as a key psychological barrier according to technical analysis.

Derivatives data supports the bullish case, with Binance net taker volume showing sharp expansion. The hourly funding rate has hit its lowest level since October 2025, reflecting crowded short exposure and cautious use of leverage. This normalization suggests that shorts are being forced to unwind.

Market analysts are divided on whether the current rally will lead to a new bull market or a deeper correction. While some are optimistic about Bitcoin's potential to hit new highs in 2026, others caution that the broader economic environment and regulatory developments will play a critical role in shaping the next phase of the market.

As Bitcoin approaches key resistance levels, investors and traders are closely monitoring onchain metrics, ETF flows, and macroeconomic indicators to gauge the sustainability of the current rally. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether this is a short-term rebound or the start of a new bullish cycle according to market analysis.