Bitcoin/Mexican Peso (BTCMXN) Market Overview

• BTCMXN traded in a volatile range of ~213k–215.6k MXN, with mixed price momentum and key resistance near 215k.
• Volume spiked during the 19:15–19:30 ET breakout attempt but failed to confirm a bullish reversal.
• RSI showed overbought conditions mid-day, followed by a bearish divergence as price declined.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the morning rally, indicating increased volatility and uncertainty.
• Fibonacci levels aligned with key support near 2128k and resistance near 2133k on the 15-min chart.

Price Action Summary

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-09-14, Bitcoin/Mexican Peso (BTCMXN) opened at 2128432 MXN, surged to a high of 2155583 MXN, pulled back to a low of 2111587 MXN, and closed at 2111587 MXN by 12:00 ET. The 24-hour trading volume totaled 0.3991 BTC, with a notional turnover of 84,917,491 MXN.

Price action was marked by a sharp morning rally breaking above 2136k MXN, followed by a consolidation phase and a sharp bearish move in the afternoon. A key bearish engulfing pattern formed around 15:00–15:30 ET, signaling a potential reversal from bullish to bearish sentiment.

Support, Resistance & Candlestick Patterns

Key support levels emerged at 2128k MXN and 2111k MXN, with the 2111k level acting as a strong magnet in the final hours. Resistance was encountered at 2133k, 2136k, and 2155k MXN, with the latter failing to hold after the 05:30 ET peak.

Notable candlestick formations included a morning bearish engulfing pattern (15:00–15:30 ET) and a midday doji (01:15–01:30 ET), reflecting indecision and potential reversal signals.

Moving Averages, MACD, and RSI

The 15-minute chart showed BTCMXN trading below its 20-period (2129.4k) and 50-period (2131.3k) moving averages by the end of the day, reinforcing bearish bias. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period (2136k), 100-period (2141k), and 200-period (2139k) moving averages were closely aligned, indicating a potential trend confluence zone.

MACD showed a bearish crossover in the late afternoon, with negative divergence forming between price and momentum. RSI reached overbought levels mid-day (74–80) and then dropped into oversold territory (27–33) by the close, suggesting exhaustion on both sides.

Bollinger Bands & Fibonacci Levels

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the morning rally, with BTCMXN reaching the upper band at 2155k MXN before retracing. By the afternoon, price settled within the lower half of the bands, signaling a potential shift to bearish consolidation.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the 15-minute swing high at 2155k MXN showed strong support near 2133k (38.2%) and 2128k (61.8%). The 61.8% level held multiple times, indicating it as a critical support zone for near-term price action.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked during key price movements, particularly at 19:15–19:30 ET (0.0246 BTC) and 05:30–05:45 ET (0.004183 BTC), but failed to confirm strong conviction on either side.

Notional turnover peaked at 84,917,491 MXN during the morning rally but declined significantly in the afternoon, suggesting waning interest in aggressive directional bets. A bearish divergence emerged between price and volume during the late afternoon pullback, signaling potential bearish exhaustion.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy based on 15-minute candlestick patterns and RSI divergence could be applied using BTCMXN’s recent behavior. For example, short entries may be triggered on bearish engulfing patterns occurring when RSI is above 70 (overbought), with stop-loss placed above the recent swing high. A long entry could be initiated when RSI drops below 30 (oversold), and price forms a bullish engulfing pattern. Using the 61.8% Fibonacci level as a stop-loss or entry confirmation could improve signal reliability. Historical data suggests this approach could yield a positive risk-reward profile if filtered by volume confirmation.