Bitcoin's Maturity Signal: A Strategic Sell-Off, Not Panic, Drives the Bull Run

Bitcoin’s bull market appears to be nearing its final stage, according to analysis from on-chain researcher Axel Adler Jr. of CryptoQuant. With 504 days having passed since the last halving event, the market is now in what Adler describes as a mature bull phase. This assessment aligns with recent price behavior, where Bitcoin has been consolidating below $113,000 amid reduced leverage and speculative positioning. The market’s current balance suggests a potential breakout is on the horizon, with bulls targeting the $120,000 level.

Key technical indicators point to a possible reversal. The price is forming an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern on the four-hour chart, with a neckline resistance set at $113,650. A confirmed breakout above this level could lead to a 5.5% rally toward $120,000. Additionally, momentum metrics have shown improvement, with Bitcoin’s price momentum rising from −8% to −5% over the past week. The Integrated Market Index has stabilized near neutral levels of 45–50, reflecting reduced bearish pressure and a shift toward cautious optimism.

On-chain data further supports the case for a bull market continuation. The value destroyed daily (VDD) metric, which tracks large-scale selling activity, has seen a peak at $70,000 followed by two smaller distribution waves around $98,000 and $117,000. This suggests that long-term holders are engaging in strategic selling rather than panic-driven dumping, a sign of a more sustainable redistribution of supply driven by institutional demand.

A key signal to watch for the final phase of this bull cycle is the emergence of a “peak flag,” typically triggered when the spot price reaches about 11 times the realized price of long-term holders. Adler Jr. expects this indicator to appear as early as October–November 2025. Alongside this, a large-scale selling wave by experienced holders and a short-term volatility peak may accompany the final ascent.

Technical indicators such as the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages are now clustered near current price levels. A sustained close above these moving averages could reinforce the bullish reversal pattern and shift them into strong support levels. The relative strength index (RSI) has also stabilized above 50, signaling a transition toward bullish conditions and a diminishing impact of short-term selling pressure.

While Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase, market participants appear to be preparing for the next leg higher. With fewer overcrowded long positions compared to previous cycles, the risk of forced liquidations is reduced, creating more room for upside volatility. As the market moves toward a critical inflection point, traders are advised to monitor both technical and on-chain signals for confirmation of the next major trend.