Bitcoin's Maturation: Another Bull Run on the Horizon

Bitcoin's Market Maturity and the 2015-2018 Cycle: Is Another Bull Run Imminent?

Bitcoin's market is showing signs of maturation, with indicators suggesting a potential euphoria phase on the horizon. The price growth of Bitcoin may be slowing, but institutional interest and reduced sell-side pressure set the stage for a brighter market future. "The structural parallels to the 2015-2018 market cycle suggest that significant growth may soon be on the cards," a source from COINOTAG remarked.

One notable trend is the diminishing rate of price appreciation with each cycle. As Bitcoin has grown into a multi-trillion-dollar asset, the capital required to drive further growth has naturally risen, slowing the rate of price gains. Recent analysis reveals that Bitcoin's current market structure closely resembles the previous bull run, suggesting an exciting transition phase for investors.

The hike in Bitcoin's Realized Cap provides critical insights into the market's ongoing evolution. During the 2011-2015 cycle, realized capital surged by approximately 122x, fueled by Bitcoin's early exponential adoption. However, as the market matured, growth ratios have steadily declined in subsequent cycles, signifying Bitcoin's shift to a more capital-intensive and structurally mature market.

In the current cycle, Realized Cap has grown by 2.1x so far, which is significantly below the 5.7x peak of the previous cycle. This growth reflects patterns observed in the 2015-2018 cycle, with sharp hikes expected as the market enters its euphoric phase. Although Bitcoin's size today demands a considerably larger capital influx to achieve similar growth, the ongoing increases in realized capital may signal opportunities for market expansion.

Tracking the long-term to short-term holder supply ratio is vital for assessing whether the market is in an accumulation or distribution phase. A rising ratio indicates that more coins are held long-term, showcasing HODLing behavior dominance. Conversely, a decline in this ratio signifies that long-term holders are actively selling.

In the ongoing 2023–2025 cycle, we have witnessed two prominent waves of distribution, reminiscent of those in early 2021 and late 2017. Historically, these distribution phases have often been followed by price rallies,