Bitcoin Market Overview: BTCUSDT Daily Summary

• Bitcoin traded in a volatile range today, breaking key resistances in late hours before consolidating.
• Volume increased significantly during the Asian and European sessions, signaling heightened participation.
• RSI and MACD show a positive divergence, indicating potential bullish momentum despite mixed candlestick signals.
• Price retested a critical support area at $110,000 before rallying, suggesting short-term buying interest.
• Bollinger Bands expanded sharply during the peak move, reflecting increased volatility.

Bitcoin opened at $109,457.36 at 12:00 ET - 1, reaching a high of $113,384.62 and a low of $110,917.45, closing at $110,956.00 at 12:00 ET today. Total volume was 16,573.74 BTC, with a notional turnover of approximately $1.88 billion across the 24-hour period.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a strong bullish breakout in the afternoon session, with a sharp rally from $112,235.56 to $113,384.62, forming a large bullish candlestick with a long lower shadow and narrow upper wick—resembling a Hammer pattern, which may indicate a reversal from a downtrend to an uptrend. A Bullish Engulfing pattern was also identified at the start of the rally, where a large green candle engulfed a previous red candle, signaling a shift in momentum. Notable support levels were tested at $112,000 and $110,000, both of which held, while key resistances at $113,000 and $113,300 were briefly broken but failed to hold.

Key Levels

• Support: $112,000, $110,000
• Resistance: $113,000, $113,300
• Psychological Level: $110,000 held firm, preventing a deeper pullback.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, Bitcoin closed above both the 20-period and 50-period SMAs, with the 20 SMA sloping upward more steeply than the 50 SMA—a positive signal for near-term bullish momentum. On the daily chart, the price remained above the 50-period and 100-period SMAs, with the 200-period SMA still acting as a long-term support at $110,000. The convergence of the 50-period and 100-period SMAs near $112,000 may indicate a potential support pivot for the next 24 hours.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line in the afternoon, confirming a bullish momentum shift. The histogram expanded during the rally, indicating increasing bullish strength. The RSI reached overbought territory at 74 during the peak of the rally but failed to close above it, suggesting some internal resistance. However, a divergence appeared between price and RSI in the morning session—price made a lower low while RSI made a higher low—hinting at a potential reversal that was later confirmed by the afternoon breakout.

Momentum Outlook

With RSI returning to neutral levels and MACD holding a positive histogram, the near-term momentum remains constructive, but traders should remain cautious of overbought conditions.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands experienced a significant expansion during the late morning and afternoon sessions, with the price breaching the upper band multiple times—most notably at $113,384.62. The lower band acted as a temporary support near $112,000 before the price rebounded. A contraction in band width was observed during the overnight session, suggesting a period of consolidation before the morning rally. The current volatility level appears elevated compared to earlier in the week, which may increase the likelihood of a pullback or sideways consolidation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the Asian and European trading hours, with the largest spike occurring between 07:15 ET and 08:30 ET when Bitcoin advanced from $111,914.53 to $112,778.93. This was accompanied by a notional turnover spike of approximately $68.5 million in that 15-minute interval. The afternoon rally also saw a notable increase in volume, particularly between 13:00 ET and 14:15 ET, with price rising from $113,214.78 to $113,084.16. A volume divergence was observed in the morning session, where price made a lower low but volume decreased, suggesting weakening bearish pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing low at $110,492.43 and high at $113,384.62, the price found support at the 61.8% retracement level ($112,033.35) and again at the 50% level ($111,938.53). The recent pullback to $110,956.00 approached the 38.2% retracement level ($111,339.65) before finding support, suggesting that the 38.2% level may act as a short-term floor in the next 24 hours if bearish pressure increases.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy suggests entering long positions when Bitcoin breaks above the 20-period SMA with volume confirmation and closes above the upper Bollinger Band, while placing a stop loss just below the 50-period SMA. Given today’s price action, this condition was met during the afternoon rally, with the price closing above the upper band and the 20-period SMA. The RSI divergence and bullish MACD crossover further support the validity of the entry signal. However, the failure to close above the overbought RSI level may indicate reduced conviction, and traders should closely monitor whether the 50-period SMA remains intact as a support level. This strategy appears to align with the observed breakout and could offer a reasonable risk-reward ratio in the near term.