Is Bitcoin's Market Bottom Still Years Away?

Bitcoin's price action in late 2025 has sparked intense debate among investors and analysts. With the cryptocurrency trading below both its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) and facing macroeconomic headwinds, the question of whether the market has reached its cyclical bottom remains unresolved. This analysis examines historical technical indicators, on-chain behavior, and institutional sentiment to assess Bitcoin's trajectory and determine whether now is the time to buy, hold, or avoid the asset.

Historical Technical Indicators: The 50-Week SMA as a Bearish Benchmark

Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, has long emphasized the 50-week moving average as a critical benchmark for Bitcoin's long-term health. As of late 2025, Bitcoin's price sits at a 13% discount to its 50-week SMA of $103,485, a level far from the 55% discounts observed during previous bear market bottoms in 2018-2019 and 2022-2023. This discrepancy suggests that the market has not yet experienced the extreme capitulation typically required to establish a sustainable bottom.

McGlone's bearish thesis is further reinforced by Bitcoin's failure to hold above its 50-day SMA of $99,769, a technical breakdown that signals sustained bearish momentum. Historical patterns, such as those identified by technical analyst Peter Brandt, also highlight the recurring nature of Bitcoin's parabolic bull cycles, which often culminate in sharp corrections. If this trend continues, the 50-week SMA could serve as a guide for Bitcoin's trajectory in 2026, with a potential target near $50,100 according to Mike McGlone.

On-Chain Behavior: Structural Strength Amid Tactical Weakness

Bitcoin's on-chain metrics in 2025 reveal a market in structural but not tactical strength. Despite record inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate entities expanding reserve holdings, the price closed the year at $87,000–$88,000, down 6% annually and 30% from its October peak of $126,000. This divergence between structural accumulation and price performance underscores a market trapped in "extreme fear," with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index spending over 30% of 2025 in fear or extreme fear territory.

On-chain data also highlights a cleansing of speculative corners of the market. Memecoins lost over 75% of their market capitalization, while capital rotated into large-cap assets. However, Bitcoin's failure to act as a safe-haven asset-despite macroeconomic tailwinds-has eroded its appeal as a hedge against fiat devaluation. The cryptocurrency's price action within a symmetrical triangle pattern, coupled with declining Chaikin Money Flow, further indicates persistent net outflows and profit-taking pressure according to on-chain analysis.

Institutional Sentiment and Macroeconomic Risks

Institutional demand for Bitcoin remains robust, with long-only capital accumulating the asset through ETFs and corporate treasuries. This structural strength has reduced liquid supply, yet it has not translated into bullish price action according to market analysis. Meanwhile, macroeconomic risks loom large. The Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts have failed to spark a meaningful rally in Bitcoin, which has instead mirrored wobbles in risk assets like the S&P 500.

McGlone's broader macroeconomic model adds further caution. He projects a 50% decline in the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio, from 20 times to 10 times by 2026, signaling a shift in investor preference toward hard assets amid economic uncertainty. Additionally, his $10,000 price target for Bitcoin in 2026-a "reversion to the mean"-aligns with recession risks and the S&P 500's potentially misleadingly optimistic trajectory.

Is Now the Time to Buy, Hold, or Avoid?

The evidence suggests that Bitcoin's market bottom may still be years away. While institutional adoption and structural accumulation provide a floor, the asset's tactical weakness-evidenced by its failure to hold above key SMAs and its lack of safe-haven appeal-indicates further downward potential. Historical precedents, such as the 55% discounts to the 50-week SMA during prior bear markets, imply that Bitcoin could test levels near $50,000 or even $10,000 in severe scenarios according to market analysis.

For investors, the decision to buy, hold, or avoid Bitcoin hinges on risk tolerance. Conservative investors may prefer to avoid the asset until it regains the $100,000 level-a psychological threshold that could signal a shift in sentiment according to analysts. Those with a longer-term horizon might consider dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin, given its structural strength and institutional demand. However, speculative buyers should brace for volatility and potential further declines.

Conclusion

Bitcoin's current trajectory reflects a market in transition. While technical indicators and on-chain behavior suggest a prolonged bearish phase, institutional adoption and macroeconomic dynamics offer a potential floor. The 50-week SMA remains a critical benchmark, and history indicates that the market may not reach its true cyclical bottom until Bitcoin trades significantly below this level. For now, caution appears warranted, with the path to a sustainable bottom likely requiring years of consolidation and capitulation.