Bitcoin and Major Altcoins: Assessing Short-Term Support Levels and Market Sentiment

The cryptocurrency market in November 2025 is a study in contrasts. Bitcoin (BTC) and major altcoins have experienced sharp corrections, driven by macroeconomic headwinds and shifting investor sentiment. Yet beneath the surface, technical indicators and volatility patterns hint at potential inflection points. This analysis unpacks the current state of the market, focusing on range-bound volatility, key support levels, and technical triggers that could signal a rebound.

Bitcoin's Descent and Critical Support Levels

Bitcoin's price action in late 2025 has been defined by a 32% drop from its October peak to below $86,000, its lowest level since April 2025. This decline reflects a confluence of factors: the Federal Reserve's muted rate-cut expectations, increased selling pressure from long-term holders, and a broader risk-off environment. Technically, Bitcoin has tested key support levels, with $93,000–$95,000 acting as a short-term barrier and $85,000 as a mid-term pivot. A breakdown below $85,000 would expose the critical $75,000 level, a long-term support zone that has historically acted as a floor during bear markets.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) underscore the bearish momentum. Bitcoin's RSI hovers near 38, far below the neutral 50 threshold, while the MACD histogram remains deeply negative, reflecting persistent selling pressure. A bearish monthly MACD cross has further reinforced concerns about a prolonged consolidation phase. However, Bitcoin's correction aligns with historical bull market patterns, where 25–40% pullbacks often precede new highs before the 2028 halving.

Altcoins: Relative Strength Amid Weakness

While Bitcoin's decline has dominated headlines, altcoins have shown divergent behavior. Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) have both faced downward pressure, with ETH testing support at $3,050–$3,200 and SOL near $140–$150. Yet, Ethereum's RSI dipped to 29.47 in late November, signaling oversold conditions and hinting at a potential short-term rebound. Similarly, Solana's volatility-peaking at 168.1%-reflects speculative trading activity, though its MACD remains bearish.

The Bitcoin Dominance Index, which measures BTC's share of the total crypto market cap, fell below 49% in November, indicating a shift of capital into altcoins despite the broader downturn. This capital rotation, however, has historically preceded deeper corrections, as seen in 2022. For altcoins to sustain a rebound, they must break above key resistance levels: Ethereum needs to clear $3,350 to reverse its downtrend, while Solana must reclaim $150 to avoid further liquidations(https://www.oanda.com/us-en/trade-tap-blog/asset-classes/crypto/mid-month-crypto-update-november-2025/).

Range-Bound Volatility and Macro Uncertainty

The market's range-bound volatility is a double-edged sword. Bitcoin has consolidated between $84,000 and $94,000, a narrow band that reflects indecision among traders. On-chain metrics add nuance: Bitcoin is trading below the Short-Term Holder cost basis and the Active Investor Mean, suggesting recent buyers are significantly underwater. Derivatives positioning and elevated options volatility also signal caution, with traders hedging against further declines.

Macro factors remain a wildcard. November nonfarm payrolls rose by 64,000, with the unemployment rate climbing to 4.6%-the highest since 2021. While these data points keep rate-cut expectations alive, they have failed to spark renewed demand for risk assets. The Fear and Greed Index, now in "extreme fear" territory, mirrors conditions during the 2022 bear market, underscoring the fragility of investor sentiment.

Technical Triggers for a Rebound

A rebound in Bitcoin and altcoins hinges on three key technical triggers:
1. Breakout Above Key Resistance: For Bitcoin, reclaiming $91,400 is critical to reinvigorate bullish momentum. A sustained move above this level could attract institutional buyers, as seen in El Salvador's recent purchases at an average of $102,200 per coin.
2. RSI Oversold Conditions: Ethereum's RSI at 29.47 suggests a short-term bounce is possible, though a broader reversal would require a move above 50.
3. Volume Divergence: Altcoins like UNI and XRP surged 77.6% and 8.9%, respectively, while Bitcoin and Ethereum lagged. This divergence indicates risk-on behavior, but it could also signal a topping pattern if not accompanied by a BTC-led rally.

Long-Term Fundamentals Remain Intact

Despite the near-term pain, the long-term fundamentals for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market remain intact. Global liquidity conditions remain expansive, and the potential for a Fed rate cut in early 2026 could reignite risk appetite. Institutional accumulation, particularly by entities like MicroStrategy and El Salvador, suggests confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value proposition.

Conclusion

The November 2025 correction has tested the resilience of Bitcoin and major altcoins, exposing both vulnerabilities and opportunities. While short-term support levels and technical indicators paint a bearish picture, range-bound volatility and oversold conditions hint at potential rebounds. Investors should monitor key resistance breaks, RSI divergences, and macroeconomic catalysts for signs of a reversal. In the long run, the crypto market's fundamentals-driven by institutional adoption and macroeconomic tailwinds-remain a compelling case for cautious optimism.