Bitcoin's MACD Turns Bullish, Signaling 150% Rally

A momentum indicator with a proven track record of forecasting significant bitcoin (BTC) price movements has turned bullish, aligning with recent analyst predictions of a rally to $150K–$200K. The indicator in question is the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram, which measures the difference between the MACD line and its signal line. The MACD line is derived by subtracting the 26-period exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-period EMA of an asset's price, while the signal line is a 9-period EMA of the MACD line itself.

A positive shift in the MACD histogram is generally interpreted as a transition from bearish to bullish momentum and is widely regarded as a buy signal by traders. The latest bullish signal follows bitcoin's rebound from the 50-week simple moving average (SMA), mirroring patterns observed in mid-2024 and early 2023. On both previous occasions, BTC experienced substantial rallies following similar movements.

Historically, the MACD has crossed into positive territory five times over the past five years, with only one false signal in March 2022, which misled bullish traders. The latest signal is consistent with the broader bullish macro outlook and analysts' calls for a rally to higher levels. Early this week, it was noted that institutional adoption and investment lows could drive bitcoin as high as $200K. Additionally, analysts have suggested that BTC is evolving into a global macro reserve asset and could rise to $150K-$180K in 2025-26.

This bullish momentum indicator, combined with the historical patterns and analyst predictions, suggests a strong potential for bitcoin to continue its upward trajectory in the near future. The MACD histogram's positive shift, along with the recent rebound from the 50-week SMA, provides a solid technical foundation for the bullish outlook. The convergence of these factors reinforces the optimism among analysts and traders regarding bitcoin's price movements.