Bitcoin Loses Its Footing: ETF Outflows, Forced Selling, and a Shrinking Margin for Error

A sharp risk-off swing knocked Bitcoin under $95,000 on Friday, erasing most of its 2025 gains as U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs logged about $870 million in one-day outflows—their second-largest on record. The move comes on the heels of massive October liquidations and renewed deleveraging, leaving thin technical support into the low-$90Ks.

What just happened

Bitcoin fell as much as 4.3% to ~$94,500, its weakest level since May, and is now flirting with a year-to-date round-trip (it ended 2024 near $93,714). The drop coincided with roughly $870M in net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs on Thursday second only to their worst day since launch amplifying pressure on price as risk appetite faded across assets.

Why the slide feels heavier this time

Leverage still unwinding. After an historic $19B wipeout in crypto liquidations on Oct. 10, which erased over $1T from total market cap, derivatives positioning never fully normalized. Sporadic $1B+ 24-hour liquidation bursts continued into November, signaling a fragile backdrop where small spot moves can force outsized selling.

Flows flipped. ETF outflows matter because they convert to spot selling at the trust level especially when redemptions cluster across multiple issuers shrinking the “automatic bid” that supported price during prior risk wobble. Thursday’s drain underscores that even passive-style vehicles can accelerate drawdowns when sentiment turns.

Macro nerves. A broader risk-off tone tightening financial conditions and fading hopes for rapid rate cuts has investors de-risking across equities and crypto simultaneously, reducing the willingness to buy dips.

The technical picture: support is thin

With the prior record high near $126K now distant and 2025 gains largely retraced, chart support doesn’t thicken meaningfully until the low-$90Ks. If that zone breaks on heavy volume, the next areas of interest are prior consolidation shelves from spring. In a deleveraging tape, failed bounces can cascade quickly as funding cools and OI resets.

Micro… Strategy: the headline side plot

Shares of “Strategy Inc.” the well-known corporate Bitcoin accumulator slid in pre-market trading, drawing attention to the gap between the company’s enterprise value and the market value of its ~$61B Bitcoin trove. On CNBC, Michael Saylor said the company is buying “quite a lot” of Bitcoin and would disclose purchases on Monday, adding that price “should rally from here.” Bulls may welcome the signal, but in a flow-driven market, one buyer rarely offsets broad ETF redemptions and forced deleveraging.

What to watch next

ETF flow tape: Another day (or two) of heavy outflows would confirm a genuine sentiment break versus a one-off redemption batch. Conversely, a quick reversion to flat or positive flows would ease pressure.

Derivatives reset: Signs that open interest has flushed and funding normalizes would reduce the odds of further liquidation spirals on small spot moves.

Macro catalysts: Any shift in rate expectations or cross-asset volatility could either restore dip-buying or deepen the de-risking loop.

Bottom line

This downdraft is about flows and leverage as much as it is about “price.” With ETFs swinging to sizable net outflows and lingering fragility in derivatives, Bitcoin’s cushion has thinned. Until the flow picture stabilizes and leverage is fully wrung out, rallies may be sold and the low-$90Ks remain in play. For investors with longer horizons, that makes position sizing, hedging, and patience more important than calling the exact bottom.