Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Slow Redistribution, Price Hovers Below $96K

Bitcoin’s Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) has decreased, indicating that long-term holders have slowed down their redistribution activities. This shift occurs as the broader market enters a phase of sideways trading, with price compression just below the crucial $96K resistance zone. Historically, a drop in long-term holder activity often precedes a fresh accumulation cycle, raising questions about whether bulls are preparing for the next leg up.

At the time of reporting, Bitcoin continued to trade sideways, hovering just below the key $96K resistance. This stabilization comes after a period of heightened long-term holder activity, which has now returned to baseline, signaling a cooldown in redistribution. Large holders appeared to ease their distribution pace, with the 7-day Netflow plunging by –619.31%, and 30-day and 90-day changes at –110.24% and –61.82%, respectively. This steep decline in outflows signals a potential shift in whale behavior from selling to holding or accumulating, aligning with the cooldown in long-term holder activity. Therefore, the drop in netflows reinforces the narrative of reduced selling pressure and increasing supply stability.

Bitcoin’s MVRV Ratio rebounded to 126.73% as of the time of reporting, after reaching lows near 83% in early April. This sharp recovery indicates that most holders are back in profit territory, which often leads to increased sell-side pressure. However, the current MVRV level is not extreme compared to historical peaks, suggesting there’s still headroom before entering euphoria zones. Therefore, while caution is warranted, the profitability bounce should not yet be interpreted as an imminent reversal signal.

On-chain valuation models present a mixed picture. The NVT Golden Cross dropped by –75.03%, suggesting that Bitcoin is relatively undervalued based on transaction activity. Meanwhile, the Puell Multiple sits at 1.08, down –11.87%, indicating issuance is slightly elevated but not alarming. Together, these signals painted a picture of valuation equilibrium—not stretched, but still offering upward room.

Social sentiment saw an uptick, with Social Dominance reaching 25.04% and Social Volume at 3,274, reflecting renewed retail interest. These spikes follow BTC’s resilience near key resistance zones, suggesting growing market attention. While not yet at mania levels, the increase in community chatter often correlates with rising volatility. Therefore, if interest continues to build, it could act as a secondary catalyst for momentum.

From a technical perspective, BTC hovered near $96K, with the RSI at 66.60—edging into overbought territory. The Bollinger Bands showed a squeeze pattern developing, signaling an imminent volatility spike. Key support lies around $92.7K and $89.5K, while the next resistance is $99K. The tightening price structure suggests a breakout or breakdown is imminent. Therefore, a decisive close above $96K could trigger a rally toward $100K, while rejection might extend consolidation.

Bitcoin is gearing up for a potentially significant move, as long-term holder activity stabilizes and whale outflows diminish. Profitability has improved without reaching overheated levels, and on-chain valuations currently range from neutral to slightly bullish. With growing social interest and prices consolidating below resistance, BTC seems poised for a breakout. However, for the rally to materialize, bulls must reclaim and maintain levels above $96K to confirm the upward momentum.