Bitcoin's Long-Term Holders Signal Market Shift

Bitcoin's market dynamics have shifted dramatically, signaling potential transitions in its long-term trajectory. Analyses revealed significant activity among long-term holders, market cycle shifts, and capitulation events, offering valuable insights for crypto traders navigating Bitcoin's evolving landscape.

The Maartuunn’s 60-day CDD indicator highlighted pronounced surges in long-term holder activity from January to July 2024 and November 2024 to the 26th of February. The analysis showed sharp spikes, peaking at over 24 million coin days destroyed, the strongest signal since 2021. Furthermore, these surges indicated increased spending by long-term holders, who typically view Bitcoin as a store of value. Such activity often preceded market tops or heightened volatility. The consistent elevation over the past year suggested long-term holders took profits or reallocated assets, potentially signaling selling pressure. This pattern mirrored 2021’s peak, where elevated CDD levels marked a turning point.

CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator pointed to a transition from a bull to a bear market by late 2024. The indicator dipped into negative territory, reaching -0.0685 on the 24th of October 2024, while the 365-day moving average trended downward at 0.25. This divergence signaled weakening momentum, potentially ending the bull cycle. Historically, negative readings preceded bear markets, characterized by declining prices and increased selling. The chart’s orange and blue zones reflected this shift, with bearish sentiment cooling investor optimism. This pattern resembled 2018’s bear market, where similar declines led to price drops.

The BTC Price vs. Hash Price chart revealed a critical relationship influencing Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Blue boxes highlighted periods where Hash Price dropped to low levels, aligning with Bitcoin price bottoms. In 2015, 2019, and 2023, these lows signaled market troughs, suggesting the current low Hash Price in early 2025 might indicate Bitcoin neared a price bottom. Despite recent price volatility, the bull run appeared to be ongoing; thus, as Hash Price declines, price recoveries have historically preceded. This pattern suggested miners faced reduced profitability, but Bitcoin’s price resilience indicated sustained demand.

BTC’s realized Profit and Loss chart captured a massive capitulation event on February 25