Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Sell Into Weakness, Signaling a Shift in Conviction

Bitcoin long-term holders are selling during price weakness, a behavior diverging from bullish market norms. This trend is evident in the declining supply share of long-term holders, dropping from 75% in late 2024 to below 72%. The current pattern resembles the 2022 bear market, where conviction waned and selling pressure intensified.

The price of Bitcoin has struggled to surpass key psychological and technical levels. Investors are watching the $95,000 threshold, which remains unbroken, and the $98,800 cost basis for recent buyers. A clean break above $95,000 could shift sentiment toward a strong 2026 rally.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin is trading below the 365-day moving average, undermining bullish technical structure. This position increases sensitivity to downward pressure and suggests the market is in a consolidation phase.

Why Is the Selling Trend Concerning?

Long-term holders typically act as a stabilizing force during market drawdowns. However, recent data indicates that holders are offloading assets during weakness rather than during strength. This behavior contrasts sharply with early 2024, when holders sold into ETF-driven strength, helping to support price stability.

Market observers see this trend as a sign of distribution rather than accumulation. Distribution patterns often precede market tops and are associated with weaker follow-through rallies. In 2026, the market is expected to test the $87,500 support level after a potential retest of the yearly open.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Analysts are closely monitoring the golden cross on the one-day chart, where the 21-day moving average crosses above the 50-day average. This event could trigger a new round of bullish momentum. However, the formation of a death cross on the weekly chart, expected around mid-month, could signal further weakness.

Technical indicators point to a likely retest of the $87,500 level before the golden cross forms. If the support fails to hold, the price could fall toward $84,430, with deeper support zones around $70,000 and $50,000 potentially becoming key levels for institutional buyers.

Market observers are also watching for signs that the selling pressure from long-term holders is easing. A reduction in this activity could signal a return to accumulation and stabilize Bitcoin's price trajectory.

How Do Analysts View the 2026 Outlook?

The 2026 price forecast for Bitcoin is split between cautious optimism and bearish caution. A conservative consolidation path sees BTC-USD fluctuating between $70,000 and $120,000, while a constructive base case anticipates end-2026 levels between $120,000 and $170,000.

Bullish scenarios, which require stronger macroeconomic conditions and increased adoption, could push prices toward the $200,000 to $250,000 range. These outcomes depend heavily on the behavior of long-term holders and broader macroeconomic factors, including ETF inflows and regulatory developments.

Bitcoin's price action is also being influenced by broader financial market dynamics. For example, the artificial intelligence (AI) market regime detection tools are being used to analyze and predict market shifts. The adoption of AI in financial analysis is expected to grow, with the market regime detection AI market projected to expand significantly by 2029.

Despite these developments, the immediate outlook remains uncertain. Market participants are waiting for a clearer direction from both technical indicators and fundamental factors before committing to long-term positions.

What Implications Does This Have for Investors?

Investors must consider the potential for increased volatility in 2026, especially if distribution patterns persist among long-term holders. Volatility could create both opportunities and risks, particularly for retail traders who may be caught in sharp price movements.

Institutional investors are expected to play a critical role, as ETF inflows and strategic accumulation could provide a floor for the price. However, until key resistance levels are breached, market participants should remain cautious about chasing near-term rallies.

The current market structure suggests that Bitcoin is in a transitional phase. Investors should focus on risk management and diversification while waiting for a clearer market direction.

Final Takeaway

Bitcoin's price remains sensitive to both market sentiment and macroeconomic factors. The current consolidation phase is expected to continue until key technical levels are tested or until a clear catalyst emerges. Investors should stay informed and prepared for both bullish and bearish scenarios as the market moves toward its next major inflection point.

The behavior of long-term holders will be a critical factor in determining the direction of Bitcoin in 2026. A shift from distribution to accumulation could signal a return to bullish momentum, while continued selling pressure could prolong the current consolidation phase.