Bitcoin's Long-Term Holders Dominate Profits, Short-Term Holders Lag

On April 4th, on-chain data analyst Murphy highlighted the current Bitcoin (BTC) market dynamics, noting that during bull market pullbacks, BTC frequently tests its Short-Term Holder Realized Price Cost (STH-RPC), which is currently at $93,000. However, since February, BTC has not shown a strong rebound, causing investor concern. Data from November 2024 to January 2025 shows that short-term holders accounted for 56% of realized profits, while long-term holders accounted for 42%.

During the recovery period from March 13th to March 25th, the profit realization skewed significantly. Long-term holder profits reached 70%, while short-term holder profits lagged at 10%. This shift indicates that long-term holders are now predominantly executing cash-out behavior, as short-term holders struggle with margins. Historically, fundamental market phases see bottoms form when long-term holders begin operating at a loss. Currently, the long-term holder’s cost basis is approximately $81,000, with over 300,000 BTC at stake.

If BTC dips below $80,000, it would place these holdings into a state of loss, presenting a significant support level. As time progresses, more short-term investors become long-term holders, gradually elevating the long-term holder cost basis. Until this dynamic is resolved, the market is likely to continue oscillating within a framework focused on identifying rebounds rather than anticipating reversals.