Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Accumulate Near $100,000 Mark, Signaling Potential Surge

Bitcoin long-term holders are currently accumulating the cryptocurrency near the $100,000 mark, a trend that has historically signaled an impending price surge. This behavior is reminiscent of previous bull markets, where similar accumulation patterns preceded significant price increases. The long/short-term supply ratio of Bitcoin holders has spiked in recent weeks, mirroring trends observed during the build-up to previous price surges at $28,000 and $60,000.

In the past two cycles, the accumulation by long-term holders (LTH) has been a precursor to dramatic price rises. For instance, the ratio peaked at $28,000 two months before the price moved towards $60,000. Similarly, a second accumulation zone at $60,000 preceded the surge to $100,000. Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $107,000, and on-chain data indicates that long-term holder dominance has again increased dramatically.

CryptoQuant data shows that the LTH/STH balance is growing beyond 4.2, with a 30-day change close to 100%. Analysts suggest that if this behavior continues, a 4-8 week period of sideways action is likely to precede a bullish breakout. A conservative ×1.6 multiplier on the current price implies a potential rally toward the $160,000 level.

Technical indicators also support a bullish outlook. A bull flag pattern on the Bitcoin daily chart, confirmed by a bullish crossover on the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, suggests upward movement. The MACD line crossed through the signal line at 148 vs. 79, indicating a bullish trend. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 57.34 suggests more upside potential before reaching overbought levels. The Bollinger Bands imply directional momentum and increasing volatility, with Bitcoin trading above the mid-band at $105,898.

Bitcoin's price has reclaimed $107,800, with support forming at $101,362 and resistance near $110,435. If the price closes above $108,000 with volume, bulls may attempt to retest $112,000 in the short term.

Despite the bullish indicators, Bitcoin’s active addresses have declined steadily since late 2024, with the latest count at 928,470, down from over 1.2 million in early 2024. This divergence between price and user activity may suggest a concentration of holdings among institutional or long-term participants rather than retail-driven growth.

On the geopolitical front, Bitcoin’s positioning as a macro reserve asset gained momentum after Senator Cynthia Lummis publicly advocated for its inclusion in national reserves. Speaking at the 2025 Bitcoin Policy Summit, she urged the U.S. Treasury to turn inefficient government assets into Bitcoin, highlighting its potential to safeguard the strength of the American state economy. The Wyoming senator also revealed that top officials of the U.S. military openly support the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, perceiving it as a geopolitical benefit. Her advocacy follows President Donald Trump’s March 6 executive order, which initiated the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR), putting all the BTC seized by the government as part of criminal forfeiture proceedings under its custodian control.