Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Absorb Selling Pressure Amid 300,000 BTC Accumulation

Bitcoin has been trading within a narrow range between $106,229 and $111,807 over the past five days, following its recent all-time high of $111,814. Despite increased selling pressure from miners after the all-time high, the price of Bitcoin has managed to stay above $108,000. On-chain data indicates that Bitcoin diamond hands, or long-term holders, are absorbing all the selling pressure.

According to data from the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, the Long-Term Holder (LTH) Spending Binary Indicator has fallen to its lowest level since September 2024. This trend was initially noted on the social media platform X by crypto analyst Alex Adler Jr. The 15-day moving average of this metric has dropped to the minimal spending zone, which has consistently preceded a more bullish move in the Bitcoin price.

In parallel, long-term holder supply has risen by approximately 300,000 BTC over the past 20 days. This marks a deviation from the trend of declines in the long-term holder supply since 2024. At the time of writing, 14.6 million BTC, representing about 74% of the total current circulating supply of BTC, is in addresses classified as long-term holders. This pattern suggests that so-called “diamond hands,” or investors with a strong conviction who hold through volatility, are not only refraining from selling with Bitcoin’s recent new peak but are actively accumulating.

The significant uptick in long-term holder supply, combined with minimal selling activity, reveals a hidden strength in the market. The current behavior of long-term investors also indicates their confidence in Bitcoin’s valuation at current levels, despite the recent price surge. Many of these long-term holders are in substantial profit, yet still choose to hold. This is unlike short-term holders, who have collectively realized over $11.6 billion in profits over the past month alone.

Drawing a parallel with historical data, the current decline in long-term holder (LTH) spending mirrors a similar pattern observed in September 2024. At that time, the LTH Indicator was in the minimal zone, and the long-term holder supply was also increasing steadily. What followed was a remarkable 96% surge in Bitcoin’s price, rising from approximately $54,000 to peaks around $106,000 in December and January. If the market were to follow a similar trajectory from the current price level, a comparable 96% rally would see Bitcoin rise to a new peak near $212,000.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $109,000. The current behavior of long-term holders suggests a bullish outlook for the market, as their accumulation and minimal spending indicate confidence in Bitcoin’s future value. This trend, if sustained, could lead to a significant price increase, similar to the surge observed in late 2024.