Bitcoin's Long Squeeze and Trump-Driven Bull Run: A Strategic Entry Point Before the Next All-Time High?

Bitcoin's on-chain metrics, institutional adoption, and geopolitical tailwinds are converging to form a compelling case for a new all-time high. As the market navigates a post-capitulation phase and Trump-era policies reshape the crypto landscape, investors are faced with a critical question: Is this the moment to position for a $120,000+ breakout?

On-Chain Signals: The End of Miner Capitulation

Bitcoin's hash rate—a proxy for network security and miner confidence—has surged to 1.057 billion terahashes per second (TH/s), a 60% year-over-year increase. This growth aligns with a bullish hash ribbon crossover, a technical indicator that historically precedes major price rallies. The last 17 such crossovers since 2015 have been followed by sustained upward trends, with only one exception (the FTX collapse).

The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) pricing bands further reinforce this narrative. Bitcoin's upper band now sits at $170,000, a level that has historically acted as a psychological and technical ceiling. When Bitcoin breaches this band, it often triggers a wave of profit-taking by long-term holders, accelerating price momentum. The current trajectory suggests a potential $200,000 target if the trend continues.

Institutional Adoption: ETF Inflows and the BITCOIN Act

The U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR), established via Executive Order 14096 in March 2025, has catalyzed a surge in institutional demand. By repurposing 200,000 BTC (valued at $21 billion) into a sovereign asset, the SBR has signaled long-term confidence in Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat devaluation. This move, combined with the BITCOIN Act's regulatory clarity, has enabled banks to custody crypto assets and allowed 401(k) providers to include Bitcoin in retirement portfolios.

Institutional ETF inflows have been staggering. As of August 2025, $33.6 billion in institutional Bitcoin ETF holdings have been reported, with investment advisors leading the charge. Brevan Howard Capital Management increased its BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) stake by 71% to $2.3 billion, while Harvard Management Company entered the space with an $117 million position. These allocations now exceed Harvard's gold holdings, signaling a shift in institutional asset allocation.

Geopolitical Catalysts: Trump's Crypto Agenda and Global Competition

President Trump's pro-crypto policies have created a favorable environment for Bitcoin's adoption. The BITCOIN Act and SBR have not only legitimized Bitcoin as a strategic asset but also positioned the U.S. to counter China's digital yuan initiative. The administration's push to convert a portion of the U.S. gold reserves into Bitcoin—championed by figures like Michael Saylor—adds another layer of geopolitical momentum.

Meanwhile, the GENIUS Act and tax incentives for Bitcoin miners are accelerating infrastructure growth, while the rollback of CBDC development reinforces Bitcoin's role as a decentralized alternative. These policies, combined with Trump's public pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, have created a macroeconomic tailwind for Bitcoin.

Strategic Entry Point: Timing the Next Leg Higher

The convergence of on-chain strength, institutional inflows, and geopolitical tailwinds suggests a strategic entry point for investors. While Bitcoin has consolidated near $124,500, the MVRV bands and hash ribbon signals indicate that the next phase of the bull run could begin with a breakout above $120,000.

Investment advice:
1. Dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin ETFs (e.g., IBIT, ARK) remains a prudent strategy, given the asset's volatility and the likelihood of short-term corrections.
2. Hedge against macroeconomic risks by allocating a portion of Bitcoin holdings to gold or U.S. Treasuries, especially as inflationary pressures persist.
3. Monitor the hash ribbon and MVRV bands for confirmation of the next upward leg. A sustained close above $170,000 would validate the $200,000 target.

Conclusion: A New Era for Bitcoin

Bitcoin's journey in 2025 reflects a maturing asset class, driven by institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and geopolitical strategy. The U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and Trump-era policies have created a foundation for sustained growth, while on-chain metrics suggest the market is primed for a new all-time high. For investors, the key is to balance optimism with caution, leveraging technical and fundamental signals to time the next leg of the bull run.

As the hash rate climbs, ETF inflows stabilize, and the geopolitical narrative unfolds, Bitcoin's next chapter is being written—not just as a speculative asset, but as a cornerstone of global finance.