Bitcoin Lags While Metals Soar, but Historical Divergence Suggests Major Crypto Breakout Likely in 2026

Bitcoin’s price has fallen out of sync with gold and other risk assets, raising speculation about a potential reversal in the coming months. Bitcoin and gold, historically correlated, now show a zero or negative relationship for the first time since mid-2022. This divergence has historically signaled major Bitcoin rallies in the past four comparable instances. According to analysis, this pattern has preceded significant Bitcoin price gains.

Analysts argue that Bitcoin’s performance is closely tied to global liquidity trends. The year-over-year growth in global M2 supply has increased, marking the beginning of a new monetary easing cycle. This is a key tailwind for Bitcoin, which historically has aligned with periods of rising liquidity. As data shows, Bitcoin has consistently outperformed during monetary easing periods.

Federal Reserve policy shifts and the end of quantitative tightening are adding to the bullish sentiment. As the Fed moves to ease policy, analysts suggest that Bitcoin is well-positioned to benefit from renewed liquidity expansion. According to market analysis, this easing environment could catalyze significant Bitcoin price action.

Why Did This Happen?

Bitcoin’s underperformance in 2025 can be attributed to tight liquidity and geopolitical tensions. Gold, for instance, surged over 44% in 2025 while Bitcoin fell 14%. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes attributes this divergence to the lack of dollar liquidity and the dominance of state-backed capital flows into sectors like technology. According to reports, Bitcoin's price behavior reflects broader monetary trends.

Hayes and others argue that Bitcoin is a monetary technology whose value is tied to the rate of fiat debasement. When liquidity contracts, Bitcoin typically sees downside. Conversely, expanding liquidity drives higher prices. As analysis indicates, this relationship has held true during periods of monetary expansion.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Analysts are closely monitoring global liquidity metrics, particularly the GMI Daily Liquidity Composite. This indicator has historically aligned with equity performance and has shown strong correlation with Bitcoin in prior bull cycles. Current readings show a widening gap between liquidity and Bitcoin, suggesting either BTC must realign or liquidity must reverse. According to market data, this divergence could signal a significant market shift.

Bitcoin’s recent price behavior reflects excess fear rather than macroeconomic stress. Financial conditions indices, including rates and the dollar, remain stable or easing. Credit spreads and broader risk assets suggest a continuation of expansionary conditions. As analysis shows, this environment favors risk assets.