Bitcoin Lags Gold Amid Unprecedented Market Decline

Last week, the global financial markets experienced a rare event where US equities, Treasurys, and the dollar all declined simultaneously. This unusual occurrence was described by macro investor Jordi Visser as a sign that "the system officially broke." Despite this turmoil, Bitcoin's price action remained relatively muted, failing to match the strength of gold, which rallied over 4% in a few days. Visser attributed this divergence to the deep-rooted skepticism from institutional finance towards Bitcoin.

Visser, with over three decades of experience on Wall Street, highlighted that US government bonds, traditionally considered the safest assets, are no longer behaving as such. He noted that month-to-date, US bonds are down over 5%, equities have dropped more than 5%, and the US dollar index is off by a similar magnitude. This simultaneous decline in currency, bonds, and stocks is unprecedented and reminiscent of financial crises observed in emerging markets, such as Brazil during the 1990s.

The implications for Bitcoin in this environment are complex. While many in the crypto community expected BTC to surge amid macro instability, Visser believes Wall Street still views Bitcoin through an equity-like lens. He stated bluntly, "Wall Street doesn’t believe in Bitcoin." According to Visser, Bitcoin’s underperformance relative to gold is not a repudiation of its long-term thesis but rather a reflection of who holds what, and when they’re allowed to act. Sovereign wealth funds, central banks, and hedge funds already own gold, while Bitcoin is not yet widely held by these institutions.

Visser emphasized that Bitcoin’s moment will likely come not amid the crisis itself, but in its aftermath, when monetary authorities begin resorting to aggressive stimulus. He predicts increased volatility and declining trust in legacy financial infrastructure, which could serve as long-term tailwinds for Bitcoin. Visser sees Bitcoin as the digital asset of the digital economy and believes the current turmoil marks the transition from a unipolar, dollar-centric world to a fragmented, multipolar one. This transition, accelerated by both geopolitical fragmentation and advances in AI, is unlikely to be smooth.

Visser’s analysis ties Bitcoin’s trajectory closely to global liquidity cycles, noting that much of the world’s debt is denominated in US dollars. As such, a falling dollar paradoxically boosts liquidity globally, particularly for emerging markets and risk assets. He predicts that Bitcoin will follow the liquidity expansions with a lag of four to ten weeks. However, he also acknowledged the near-term structural headwinds, such as investor redemptions and prime broker margin requirements, which prevent institutional allocators from fully embracing Bitcoin.

Despite institutional hesitancy, Visser underscored that the global conversation around trade, capital flows, and currency trust is now permanently altered. He believes that decentralized systems will inevitably grow more relevant in a world where nationalism replaces globalism and bilateral trust continues to erode. Visser sees Bitcoin not as a failed safe haven, but as an emergent asset still waiting for its structural breakout moment. Until Wall Street stops viewing Bitcoin as a risk-on tech proxy—and until central banks inevitably revert to monetary stimulus—BTC will remain in the shadows of gold. However, he is unequivocal in his belief that Bitcoin’s role in the global capital system is destined to become more prominent.

In sum, Visser sees the current financial turmoil as an opportunity for something new to be built. He believes that the system may be broken, but that is precisely how innovation and change occur. As the global financial landscape continues to evolve, Bitcoin’s role and relevance are likely to become more apparent, even if it remains in the shadows of gold for the time being.