Bitcoin Follows Lag Pattern Behind Gold, Paving Path to $130,000 Target

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently exhibiting a pattern historically seen before significant price rallies, with its 52-week correlation to gold turning negative for the first time since mid-2022. Analysts note that this divergence typically precedes strong BTC performance. The shift could indicate a potential move toward a $130,000 price target, with some forecasts suggesting an upper range of $150,000.

Institutional demand for Bitcoin has strengthened, particularly through spot ETFs. On Monday, Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net inflow of $116.67 million, breaking a four-day streak of outflows. Strategy Inc. also added 13,627 BTC to its holdings, bringing its total reserve to 687,410 BTC. This accumulation highlights strong conviction among institutional investors in Bitcoin's long-term value.

The price of Bitcoin has recently stabilized above $92,000 after rebounding from a broken horizontal channel. Traders remain cautious ahead of the release of US CPI data, which could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate path and introduce volatility.

Why Did This Happen?

Bitcoin's historical correlation with gold has frequently acted as a predictive indicator for price movements. In past instances, when the correlation turned negative, Bitcoin has typically rallied by 50% or more within two months. This pattern aligns with macroeconomic conditions such as rising global liquidity and the end of the Fed's quantitative tightening.

The correlation between Bitcoin and gold turned negative earlier in January 2026, which is being interpreted as a bullish signal by analysts. Global M2 supply growth has historically coincided with Bitcoin's bull cycles. With a new easing cycle beginning and the Fed ending QT, analysts believe this supports further price appreciation.

How Did Markets React?

Bitcoin's recent rebound has drawn attention from both retail and institutional traders. On-chain data and ETF inflows suggest improving sentiment, with Bitcoin trading above the 50-day EMA at $91,595. The RSI and MACD indicators show positive momentum, supporting a potential breakout toward $100,000.

Ethereum (ETH) also rose to $3,160, maintaining support above $3,000 despite signs of retail distribution. XRP, however, has seen mixed signals, with stable prices but declining on-chain activity.

Bitcoin spot ETF inflows resumed after a brief period of outflows, with BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) leading the charge. The cumulative inflow volume stands at $56.25 billion, and net assets at $118.65 billion.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Analysts are monitoring Bitcoin's ability to maintain its position above the 50-day EMA, as a sustained move above this level could signal further price strength. Institutional buying is a key factor, as ETF demand mirrors patterns seen in gold markets.

In gold markets, central bank demand eventually exhausted available sellers, leading to a 65% price surge in 2025. Bitcoin's fixed supply schedule suggests a similar dynamic could occur if existing holders stop selling into ETF demand. Analysts predict that this could lead to a parabolic price movement once the market reaches that inflection point.

Corporate accumulation and ETF flows are also under scrutiny. If Bitcoin's price is to follow gold's delayed response pattern, it will depend on whether current sellers continue to offload BTC. The key challenge for the market is determining when the supply of willing sellers will be exhausted.

Investors are also watching for signs of a shift in the Fed's policy direction, particularly after the recent CPI data showed inflation at 2.7%. A continued easing path could further support risk assets like Bitcoin. Market reactions to the January FOMC meeting will be closely watched for any changes in interest rate expectations.