Bitcoin Jumps 10% to $105,000 on Israel Iran Ceasefire News

Bitcoin's price surged to $105,000 following the announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran by U.S. President Donald Trump. The news, posted on Truth Social, came after Iran launched missiles at a U.S. military base in Qatar, which resulted in no significant damage or casualties. The ceasefire was met with skepticism as Israel accused Iran of initiating another round of attacks, which Iran denied. Trump reiterated his support for the ceasefire, stating that Israel would not attack Iran and that all planes would turn around and head home.

The possibility of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran jumped to 99% on the cryptocurrency-based prediction site Polymarket, up from the previous 8% on June 23. The chance of a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal remains fluctuating with a current Polymarket possibility of 44%. Trump also stated that Iran would never rebuild their nuclear facilities. Polymarket is in talks to raise $200 million in the latest round of funding with a valuation of over $1 billion. The decentralized platform raised $70 million from two recent rounds in May, including a Series A of $20 million led by General Catalyst and a $45 million Series B funding round led by Founders Fund.

Bitcoin's sharp reaction to the ceasefire announcement has reignited discussions about its use as a geopolitical risk asset. Traders moved quickly following the ceasefire news, reinforcing the view that crypto can respond faster than traditional markets during global uncertainty. Polymarket's activity represents growing interest in decentralized tools for gauging political outcomes. The platform's rising volume suggests users are turning to crypto-based prediction markets for faster insights on diplomacy, conflict, and major international decisions.

Polymarket uses blockchain infrastructure to settle predictions on-chain, providing transparent odds and rapid resolution of outcomes. Outcomes on Polymarket are resolved using third-party oracles and predefined criteria, reducing subjective intervention. Disputes are resolved via decentralized governance, which supports integrity and transparency. As the platform gains traction and funding, it may attract attention from regulators, especially given the uncertain legal classification of prediction markets in various jurisdictions.