Bitcoin's July Mean Return 7.56% as Seasonal Trends Emerge

Market tactician Daan Crypto Trades has highlighted Bitcoin's tendency to remain relatively inactive during June, only to see significant price movements in the subsequent months. According to his observations, June has historically been a slow month for Bitcoin, with spot prices fluctuating within a narrow range and ending the month with minimal change. This pattern is supported by a Coinglass heat-map of monthly returns dating back to 2013, which illustrates the summer trend.

July, on the other hand, has shown a more positive trend. Over the past twelve years, the mean return for July is +7.56%, with a median return of +8.90%. August sees a modest increase with a mean return of +1.75%, while September tends to experience sell-side pressure, with an average return of -3.77% and a negative median of -4.35%. July has finished in the green in eight out of the last twelve years, whereas August and September have only managed four positive outcomes each. Notable years, such as 2017 and 2020, have reinforced the narrative of significant price movements during these months.

Daan Crypto Trades emphasizes the behavioral aspect of this seasonality, advising traders to be aware of these patterns to avoid being spooked or over-excited by short-term movements. He notes that August and September often see significant price corrections, which can be good buying opportunities for the end-of-year rally. This advice comes as Bitcoin tests a cluster of long-timeframe resistances, with Daan reminding followers that a weekly or more than two consecutive daily candles above resistance could signal a larger move.

The seasonality conversation is particularly relevant given the crowded macro calendar and the illiquid holiday stretch. While historical averages do not guarantee future performance, the heat-map suggests that directional conviction often returns in October, which has the best-performing mean return of +21.89%. For traders, this leaves a two-month corridor where whipsaw moves are common, and positioning discipline is crucial.

Daan extends this framework to altcoins via the TOTAL3 index, which excludes Bitcoin and Ether from the crypto market cap. He notes that the TOTAL Altcoin Market Cap has held onto its local support but has not shown a clear trend. To initiate a high timeframe move, the index would need to break above the ~$950 B mark, aiming for cycle highs thereafter. Whether 2025 will follow the seasonality script will depend on the macro environment, ETF inflows, and Bitcoin's ability to convert resistance into fresh price discovery. Until a weekly close above resistance is achieved, seasoned traders are advised to keep their summer expectations aligned with the data, as recommended by Daan Crypto Trades.