Bitcoin Isn't Stuck, It's Compressed – Why $100,000 Could Break Soon

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) traded around $93,000 on Tuesday as ETF inflows continued to support the market. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $697 million in inflows on Monday, the highest since early October. Institutional demand remains a key driver for the asset's price action.

Bitcoin's recent performance has drawn cautious optimism from analysts. Compass Point analyst Ed Engel noted that the market appears to be entering 2026 with improved conditions as long-term selling and deleveraging have slowed. The price is currently consolidating below $95,000, a key resistance level.

Strategists believe the current technical setup favors a strong rally later this year. The RSI and MACD indicators suggest bullish momentum is building, but a breakout above $94,253 would be needed to confirm a sustained upward trend.

Why Is Bitcoin Consolidating Around $93,000?

Bitcoin has faced difficulty breaking above $95,000 in recent days. Market participants are watching closely for a decisive move above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $94,253. This level marks a critical psychological and technical threshold for the asset.

Institutional investors appear to be accumulating Bitcoin despite recent volatility. Strategy Inc. added 1,287 BTC to its holdings on Monday, bringing its total reserves to 673,783 BTC. The company also increased its USD cash reserves to $2.25 billion, signaling continued confidence in Bitcoin as a long-term asset.

How Are ETFs Supporting Bitcoin's Price?

Bitcoin ETF inflows are playing a crucial role in supporting the price. SoSoValue data show that net inflows have accelerated at the start of 2026, with over $1.2 billion in inflows recorded in the first two trading days of the year.

Institutional demand for Bitcoin ETFs is growing, with BlackRock's IBIT and other major ETFs attracting large flows. These products have helped institutional investors gain exposure to Bitcoin in a regulated and liquid format. This has increased Bitcoin's legitimacy as an asset class.

ETFs are also drawing in new capital. Morgan Stanley recently filed for an Ethereum ETF, and several other major financial institutions are expected to follow. This expansion of crypto-related ETF offerings is likely to strengthen Bitcoin's institutional appeal.

What Do Analysts Expect in the Near Term?

Analysts remain cautious but optimistic. If Bitcoin breaks above $94,253, it could extend its rally toward $100,000. The RSI and MACD indicators currently favor the bulls, with the RSI at 64 and the MACD showing a bullish crossover.

However, a failure to break above $94,253 could result in a pullback toward $90,000. This level would be a key test for the bulls. If Bitcoin falls below $90,000, it could signal renewed selling pressure.

Market observers are also watching for a broader breakout in 2026. Analysts from Axis and Real Vision believe that 2026 could see Bitcoin functioning as a key component of global finance. The recent bear market served as a stress test for institutional investors and could lead to more stable and long-term capital inflows.

What Are the Risks and Uncertainties?

Despite the bullish technicals, there are still risks. ETF flows can be volatile, and recent data showed a reversal on January 6, with $243 million in outflows for Bitcoin ETFs. This suggests that market sentiment can shift quickly in response to price fluctuations.

Regulatory developments also remain a factor. U.S. lawmakers are preparing to mark up competing crypto bills on January 15. These bills could influence how institutions and retail investors access the market.

In addition, geopolitical risks continue to be monitored. Although the Venezuela crisis did not trigger a panic sell-off, analysts are still watching for potential volatility from global events. The market appears to have become more resilient to such shocks.

What Is the Long-Term Outlook for Bitcoin?

The long-term outlook remains positive for Bitcoin. Institutional investors are increasingly viewing Bitcoin as a strategic asset. This is reflected in the continued accumulation by companies like Strategy and the growing interest from major financial institutions.

ETF inflows are expected to remain a key driver of Bitcoin's price. If the asset continues to attract new capital, it could support a sustained rally toward $100,000 and beyond. This would mark a major milestone for Bitcoin's institutional adoption.

Analysts also believe that Bitcoin's market structure could improve as ETF inflows increase. This would help reduce volatility and create a more stable investment environment for long-term holders.