Bitcoin’s Illiquid Supply Surge on Binance: A Catalyst for $150,000 by Year-End?

The Bitcoin market in 2025 is witnessing a seismic shift in liquidity dynamics, driven by a record surge in illiquid supply on Binance and other major exchanges. As of August 2025, 74% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is deemed illiquid, meaning these coins have not moved for at least two years, while 75% of the total supply has been dormant for over six months [1]. This unprecedented hoarding by long-term holders (LTHs) has created a scarcity-driven environment, amplifying buying pressure on the remaining liquid supply and fueling speculation that Bitcoin could surpass $150,000 by year-end.

On-Chain Metrics: A Bullish Foundation

The surge in illiquid supply is not an isolated phenomenon but part of a broader structural shift in Bitcoin’s on-chain behavior. Key metrics such as the MVRV ratio (2.3×) and SOPR (1.03) indicate that most holders are in profit and selectively taking gains, maintaining a healthy market structure [5]. Additionally, the hashrate has grown 47% year-over-year, reinforcing network security and miner confidence [1]. Institutional adoption further solidifies this bullish setup: corporate entities now hold 3.68 million BTC (18% of the circulating supply), while BlackRock’s IBIT ETF has attracted $70 billion in assets under management [4]. These developments underscore Bitcoin’s growing role as a quasi-safe-haven asset, particularly in a macroeconomic climate marked by inflationary pressures and regulatory clarity.

Binance’s Liquidity Dynamics: Strength and Fragility

Binance remains central to Bitcoin’s liquidity ecosystem, with $8 million in order book depth on both buy and sell sides within a $100 price range, outperforming competitors like Bitget and OKX [4]. This liquidity dominance is critical for price stability, especially during volatile periods. However, the platform’s illiquid supply surge introduces fragility. With 14 million BTC locked in wallets on Binance, the available float has shrunk to a 7-year low, making the market vulnerable to sharp corrections if large holders or whales decide to sell [2]. Whale activity in August 2025—marked by an average deposit size of 13.5 BTC and net buying of $275 million in derivatives—suggests accumulation rather than distribution [3]. Yet, the low liquid supply means even modest whale activity could trigger significant price swings.

The Path to $150,000: Scarcity vs. Volatility

The interplay between illiquid supply and liquidity scarcity creates a “coiled spring” dynamic. As the available float tightens, each incremental demand surge exerts disproportionate upward pressure on price. Analysts project that if this trend continues, Bitcoin could reach $190,000–$192,000 by year-end, driven by macroeconomic tailwinds, institutional adoption, and ETF inflows [4]. However, the path is far from linear. Recent ETF outflows—such as the $1.19 billion loss by BlackRock’s IBIT in mid-August—highlight the sensitivity of Bitcoin’s price to liquidity shifts [4]. Key support and resistance levels ($110,000–$112,000 and $123,700–$124,000) will be critical in determining whether the bull case materializes [4].

Risks and the Fragile Bull Run

While the current setup is bullish, it is not without risks. The low liquid supply makes the market susceptible to sharp corrections, particularly if macroeconomic shocks—such as Fed rate hikes or regulatory setbacks—trigger panic selling. Additionally, the concentration of liquidity on Binance raises systemic risks, as the exchange processes nearly double the trading volume of all other platforms combined [4]. A sudden withdrawal of liquidity or a major security incident could exacerbate volatility.

Conclusion: A Calculated Bet

Bitcoin’s illiquid supply surge on Binance reflects a maturing bull cycle, driven by long-term holder conviction and institutional adoption. The scarcity of liquid supply and robust on-chain metrics create a compelling case for further price appreciation. However, the fragility of this market structure necessitates caution. For investors, the key is to balance optimism with risk management, recognizing that $150,000 may not be a straight-line target but a potential destination after navigating volatility.

**Source:[1] Bitcoin Illiquid Supply On Binance Hit Record Highs [https://www.newsbtc.com/bitcoin-news/bitcoin-150000-binance-illiquid-supply-record/][2] Bitcoin's Institutional Makeover: Why $150K in 2025 Feels Inevitable [https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-news-today-bitcoin-institutional-makeover-150k-2025-feels-inevitable-2508/][3] Bitcoin Whales Shift to Buying, $275M Net Buys in 24 Hours [https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-whales-shift-buying-275m-net-buys-24-hours-2508/][4] Bitcoin's Institutional Supply Shock: A Catalyst for $192000 [https://www.ainvest.com/news/bitcoin-institutional-supply-shock-catalyst-192-000-q3-2025-2508/][5] BTC's Orderbook Dynamics Signal a Structurally Different All-Time-High Breakout [https://www.falconx.io/newsroom/btcs-orderbook-dynamics-signal-a-structurally-different-all-time-high-breakout]